Bitcoin is facing renewed downside pressure as institutional investors continue pulling money from US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, raising concerns about weakening market demand and growing sell-side pressure.
Crypto analytics platform Swissblock said that its proprietary Bitcoin Risk Index climbed to 33 out of 100, signaling a shift into a higher-risk environment for the market. The firm said the latest rise reflects increasing institutional distribution after months of steady accumulation earlier this year.
It is crystal clear:
Every time the Risk Index signals that selling pressure is structurally overwhelming the market, what sits underneath is institutional distribution.
Observe the pattern:
→ High Risk expands
→ ETF flows deteriorateBTC ETFs are still slightly positive in… pic.twitter.com/3chLxdzHej
— Swissblock (@swissblock__) May 25, 2026
According to Swissblock, Bitcoin saw strong buying activity throughout March and April, but sentiment has changed in May as ETF demand weakened and selling pressure intensified.
ETF outflows add to market weakness
The slowdown in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows has become a major concern for traders and analysts watching institutional activity closely.
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode reported Monday that US Bitcoin ETFs have posted net outflows on nearly every trading day since May 7. The company described the trend as a persistent institutional sell signal that has now stretched for more than two weeks.
Glassnode said the continuous outflows are increasing supply pressure in the market without enough buying demand to absorb it.
Swissblock also warned that ETF demand is no longer providing the support needed to stabilize Bitcoin prices. The firm noted that if institutional buying remains weak, the market risk index could continue climbing in the coming weeks.
Analysts say crypto market remains cautious
Market analysts say investors are still taking a cautious approach despite Bitcoin holding within a relatively stable trading range over the past several months.
SoSoValue data indicates that American spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows exceeding $2 billion over the past ten trading days, setting a new record since January. Notably, these substantial withdrawals did not lead to the anticipated collapse of Bitcoin.
Is geopolitical tensions triggering the Bitcoin dip?
Bitcoin also came under additional pressure following reports of fresh US military strikes targeting Iranian missile sites and naval operations.
The development briefly pushed Bitcoin down nearly 1%, falling from above $77,000 to below $76,500 during Tuesday trading, according to TradingView data.
Despite the decline, Bitcoin continues to trade within a narrow range that has largely held for almost four months as investors weigh geopolitical risks against expectations of easing global tensions.
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