Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin is no longer driven mainly by crypto cycles like halving events. In his new essay, The Butterfly Touch, the BitMEX co-founder says Bitcoin is now linked to global liquidity.
Bitcoin is now tied to global money printing
He points to rising spending on AI, war, and infrastructure in the US and China. His argument is that governments are spending more and printing more money to stay competitive. That extra liquidity flows into risk assets like Bitcoin.
In this view, Bitcoin is not just a crypto asset anymore. It is a reflection of how much money is being created in the global system.
The $60K bottom call and what it means for traders
Hayes believes Bitcoin may have already found its bottom around the $60,000 level. From there, he sees the possibility of a move toward $126,000, particularly if Bitcoin can break decisively above $90,000 and hold momentum.
Still, calls like this are not just passive observations in crypto markets. Bold predictions from popular figures tend to influence sentiment. Traders adjust positions quickly. Big funds also react to changing narratives. This can help push prices in the direction of the most forecast.
So traders are left with a question. Is the prediction simply describing the market, or actively shaping it? For many traders, this creates both confidence and risk. Confidence because the outlook is bullish. Risk because crowded views can also cause fast reversals when too many people make the same trade. For example, if traders are buying and the price starts to fall, stop losses can kick in. This leads to more selling, and the market can quickly turn the other way.
Market voices also hold market positions
Hayes is also invested in the market. His family office, Maelstrom, is positioned in tokens like HYPE and Zcash, with NEAR also on his radar. This creates a clear overlap between analysis and capital allocation.
For crypto investors, this matters. Influential voices are not just describing the market. They are also participating in it. That can speed up price moves when others follow the same ideas.
The overall picture is mixed. The bullish case is stronger liquidity and rising asset prices. The risk is that markets become more dependent on a few powerful narratives.
In simple terms, Bitcoin is no longer just reacting to charts. It is reacting to global money flows and the opinions of people who also have money in the game.
Hayes revealed that his investment firm, Maelstrom, dialled down trading activity in the first quarter, opting only to increase exposure to Hyperliquid HYPE.
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