Crypto markets may be entering a period of hesitation rather than momentum, according to Arthur Hayes, who believes two powerful forces are keeping traders on the sidelines.
In a fresh April 16 note, Hayes revealed that his investment firm, Maelstrom, dialled down trading activity in the first quarter, opting only to increase exposure to Hyperliquid HYPE. He described the current environment as a “no-trade zone,” where uncertainty is building pressure on Bitcoin rather than driving a clear direction.
“No Trade Zone” discusses the impact on $BTC based on whether the Strait of Hormuz is open or closed. pic.twitter.com/spNEjrnPI7
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) April 16, 2026
AI disruption and war fears weigh on markets
Hayes pointed to the rise of “agentic AI” as a looming economic disruptor, warning it could destabilize labour markets in advanced economies. He likened its potential impact to the 2008 financial crisis, suggesting widespread job displacement may trigger a deflationary shock and weaken consumer spending.
At the same time, geopolitical tensions are adding another layer of uncertainty. Hayes highlighted concerns around a potential conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran, particularly over control of the Strait of Hormuz.
With ceasefire discussions ongoing but unresolved, markets remain sensitive to any escalation. President Trump once again expressed optimism about a possible agreement with Iran to end the war, which is currently on a two-week ceasefire. Trump, along with Pakistan’s leader, suggested that the conflict is “very close to over,” hinting that new direct peace negotiations between the U.S. and Iran may be imminent.
Bitcoin outlook says $90K possible, but not yet
Despite the cautious tone, Hayes maintains a long-term bullish outlook on Bitcoin. He outlined three possible scenarios, from de-escalation in the Middle East to prolonged conflict that could shape market direction. In several of these cases, aggressive money printing by central banks could eventually drive Bitcoin toward the $80,000–$90,000 range.
However, he is not rushing to buy. Hayes emphasized that he is waiting for clear signals of liquidity support from the U.S. Federal Reserve, especially as banks grapple with rising consumer credit stress.
For now, his preference leans toward traditional safe havens and select crypto bets. He expressed confidence in gold and reiterated optimism around Hyperliquid’s HYPE token, citing its upcoming HIP-4 upgrade as a potential catalyst. Hayes believes the platform could challenge prediction market players like Polymarket and Kalshi.
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