Quick Breakdown
- The classic four-year BTC cycle may no longer define market behaviour, opening the door for upside in 2026.
- Macro easing and regulatory support could strengthen BTC-SPX correlation and risk-asset flows.
- Real World Assets and tokenization expected to drive crypto value; $150K BTC increasingly plausible.
Bybit and Block Scholes released their 2026 crypto outlook, highlighting a shift from traditional four-year cycle expectations.
— Bybit (@Bybit_Official) January 5, 2026
Macro support and regulatory tailwinds
Analysts suggest the classic cycle, which often signals a bear market following previous BTC peaks, may no longer fully determine price behaviour. Instead, new sources of demand, supportive macro conditions, and regulatory backing could fuel upside momentum.
The report points to continued easing from the U.S. Federal Reserve and a potential dovish Fed Chair nomination as key macro drivers. BTC’s current lag behind U.S. equities suggests the potential for a reestablished positive correlation with the S&P 500, providing additional upside for Bitcoin. However, investors are cautioned to monitor market-moving events, such as the MSCI’s pending index decision by January 15 and potential policy tightening from the Bank of Japan, which could create volatility across bond, FX, and crypto markets.
Emerging drivers and BTC price outlook
Real World Assets (RWAs) and tokenization initiatives are expected to drive substantial crypto market value in 2026, particularly for blockchains and altcoins capable of capturing regulated institutional adoption. The report also underscores the need for infrastructure upgrades to mitigate risks from advances in quantum computing, signalling a focus on both security and innovation.
Market sentiment appears cautious on BTC price extremes, with options data implying just a 10.3% probability of BTC reaching $150,000 by year-end. Bybit and Block Scholes, however, assign a higher likelihood of a new all-time high around $150K, citing favourable macroeconomic conditions and continued regulatory support.
The outlook suggests 2026 could mark a transformative year for crypto, where traditional cycle-based assumptions give way to new dynamics shaped by institutional adoption, macro trends, and technology-driven developments.
Bybit announced that it will gradually wind down its services for users in Japan, starting in 2026, to comply with the country’s strict regulatory framework. Accounts identified as belonging to Japanese residents will face phased restrictions. Users who believe they were misclassified are being asked to complete additional identity verification to correct their status.
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