Last updated on May 13th, 2026 at 12:42 pm
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes escalating tensions between the United States and Iran could eventually force the Federal Reserve to pivot away from its hawkish stance, a shift he argues would send crypto markets higher.
In a blog post published Monday, Hayes pointed to a historical pattern: major US military engagements in the Middle East have often coincided with looser monetary policy. According to him, presidents dating back to the mid-1980s have launched military operations in the region, with the Federal Reserve responding by cutting interest rates or expanding liquidity to help finance those efforts.
“iOS Warfare” argues that the longer Trump lingers in Iran, the higher the likelihood of the Fed printing money to support the Pax Americana war machine. And ultimately $BTC number go up.
Stay safe out there fam.https://t.co/Ku3IRzCr2B pic.twitter.com/it3SRxKnFW
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) March 2, 2026
Hayes cited the 1990 Gulf War, post-9/11 military campaigns in 2001, and the 2009 Afghanistan troop surge as examples where monetary easing followed geopolitical escalation. If President Donald Trump deepens US involvement in Iran, Hayes argues the odds increase that the Fed lowers borrowing costs or boosts money supply to sustain spending.
A wait-and-see moment for Bitcoin bulls
Over the weekend, US and Israeli forces reportedly carried out airstrikes on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, a development Trump has vowed to follow up on.
Still, Hayes cautioned against rushing into positions prematurely. Investors, he said, should watch how long Washington is willing to finance a potentially expensive geopolitical campaign, and how much financial strain markets can tolerate before policymakers intervene.
“The time to back up the truck,”
he suggested, would be immediately after clear signs of rate cuts or renewed money printing.
Markets react, but without panic
Despite heated rhetoric online with “World War 3” trending across crypto social channels, broader markets have shown limited stress. Data from Santiment indicated that while mentions spiked, they remain far below levels seen during the June 2025 flare-up between Israel and Iran.
US stock futures opened only slightly lower on Monday, and oil prices erased nearly half of their initial surge. The S&P 500 slipped less than 1%, suggesting investors are not yet pricing in a prolonged global crisis.
Earlier this year, Iran’s state-run arms exporter launched cryptocurrency payment options for foreign military contracts, a bold strategy to circumvent U.S. and European financial restrictions.
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