BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes a potential expansion of a Federal Reserve facility that Japan could use to support the yen may eventually send more liquidity toward Bitcoin, Ether and gold.
In his latest essay, Hayes said Japan could use the Fed’s Foreign and International Monetary Authorities (FIMA) Repo Facility to obtain U.S. dollars against its Treasury holdings and use those dollars to buy yen.
My essay “Yen-quake” walks readers through how Buffalo Bill Bessent plans to manipulate the dollar-yen exchange rate and turn the money printer back on.
“While a weak, weaker, and weakest yen propelled global asset markets higher over the past decade, like all good things for… pic.twitter.com/4tXwuKMFPg
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) August 11, 2026
Japan’s Finance Ministry confirmed on August 3 that it carried out coordinated yen purchases with the United States on July 31 and plans to use the FIMA facility in future interventions.
Japan’s yen defense could bring more dollar liquidity
FIMA allows approved foreign central banks and monetary authorities to temporarily exchange U.S. Treasuries for dollars through the New York Fed without selling the securities in the open market.
The facility currently has a $60 billion limit per counterparty. Hayes argued that increasing or removing the limit could give Japan more room to support the yen without putting large amounts of Treasuries up for sale.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has also supported increasing the facility’s size, strengthening expectations that FIMA could become a larger part of Japan’s currency intervention strategy.
Hayes linked a larger facility to higher liquidity across global markets, arguing that increased dollar availability could benefit scarce assets such as Bitcoin, Ether and gold.
Could Japan’s yen intervention become a Bitcoin risk?
Not everyone in the crypto market sees the potential intervention as bullish.
The weakness of the Japanese yen remains a major concern because of its connection to the global yen carry trade. Traders remember the sharp market sell-off in August 2024, when a Bank of Japan rate hike helped trigger a rapid unwinding of yen-funded trades. Bitcoin fell sharply as investors moved away from riskier assets.
A larger FIMA facility could act as a cushion by giving Japan access to dollars without forcing large Treasury sales into the market. That could make any yen intervention less disruptive.
But the opposite scenario remains possible. If the U.S.-Japan measures fail to stabilize the yen and carry trades unwind aggressively, Bitcoin could face another major sell-off. Some market participants have warned that BTC could fall toward the $50,000 level rather than benefit from additional liquidity.
Japan could potentially access U.S treasury
Hayes estimates Japan could potentially access about $1.37 trillion in Treasury collateral, including holdings linked to the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF).
The $1.37 trillion figure represents the estimated value of U.S. Treasury securities held by Japan and its government investment institutions that could, under expanded FIMA rules, potentially support access to dollar liquidity.
Fed data also showed only $1 million in repurchase agreements outstanding as of August 5, indicating that a major FIMA liquidity injection had not yet occurred.
Meanwhile, Japan could see its first Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) by 2028, potentially opening the door for trillions of yen in new investment as pension funds and other institutional investors look for ways to diversify their portfolios.
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