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Japan Could Launch Its First Bitcoin ETF by 2028 With Potential ¥3T Inflows

Japan could see its first Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) by 2028, potentially opening the door for trillions of yen in new investment as pension funds and other institutional investors look for ways to diversify their portfolios.

The potential demand is already visible among Japanese institutional investors. Aiyu Kiguchi, executive director of investment management at the National Business Pension Fund in Okayama, said the fund invests in cryptocurrency funds managed by major overseas hedge funds because Bitcoin’s price movements have a low correlation with the US dollar.

The fund manages ¥21.5 billion in assets, with 15% held in US dollar-denominated investments. It does not plan to make major cuts to its dollar holdings, but intends to initially allocate 1% of its assets to cryptocurrency funds as part of its diversification strategy.

Japan has been slow to approve a Bitcoin ETF

Japan has had a cautious approach to crypto investment products compared with the US and other major markets. The country’s regulators have maintained strict rules around digital assets, while domestic investors have generally accessed Bitcoin through crypto exchanges rather than regulated ETFs. That could explain why Japan is only now considering a product that has already become available in markets such as the US, Hong Kong and Australia.

If Japan approves a Bitcoin ETF, it could also test whether the country’s regulators are becoming more comfortable with crypto being offered through traditional financial channels. The bigger question is whether the rules will allow the product to attract the same level of institutional demand seen in other markets.

However, Japan has now approved amendments to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act that classify cryptocurrencies as financial products, showing a more open regulatory stance.

Other countries have been moving toward Bitcoin ETFs

The United States already has spot Bitcoin ETFs, which began trading in January 2024, while Hong Kong approved its first spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs later that year. Australia also launched its first spot Bitcoin ETF in June 2024. These products have given institutional and retail investors regulated ways to gain Bitcoin exposure without holding the asset directly.

Japan’s potential approval would put it alongside a growing group of markets that have brought Bitcoin into traditional investment channels. The difference is that Japan’s ETF market could attract more institutional interest, particularly from pension funds and other large investors that face restrictions on directly buying and holding cryptocurrency.

 

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