Bitcoin is trading far below levels implied by its historical relationship with U.S. tech stocks. A recent BiTofficial report estimates that if Bitcoin had tracked the Nasdaq rally, its price would be closer to $140,000. Instead, it remains near $80,000. Analysts point to inflation as the main factor behind the gap.
📃#BITOnTarget Report – May 15, 2026 ⬇️
Why Inflation is Bitcoin’s Headwind, Not Its Tailwind#BIT #Bitcoin #BTC #Inflation #CPI #Fed #RateCuts #Nasdaq #CryptoMarkets pic.twitter.com/i2wXxVsb5t
— BIT Official (@BITofficial_EN) May 15, 2026
October 2025 marked a break in market direction
The divergence began in October 2025 when U.S. inflation rose to 3.0%, pushing it 100 basis points above the Federal Reserve’s target. That single reading shifted expectations across financial markets. Traders quickly removed any expectations of rate cuts for 2026, tightening financial conditions across risk assets.
Bitcoin, which tends to respond strongly to liquidity and interest rate expectations, lost momentum as a result. While equities continued to benefit from stronger corporate earnings and inflation-linked revenue growth, Bitcoin lacked those supports. The result was a clear split: stocks climbed while Bitcoin stalled.
Inflation is reshaping Bitcoin’s market role
Rising inflation has created an uneven environment for assets. Equities benefit from higher nominal revenues and reduced real debt burdens, while Bitcoin does not gain the same structural advantages. Instead, it reacts more directly to shifts in monetary policy expectations.
Recent U.S. data show inflation pressures are still present, reinforcing the view that rate cuts may remain off the table. For Bitcoin, this removes a key source of historical upside, as past rallies have often aligned with easing cycles or expectations of looser policy.
Analysts argue the key question is whether this divergence is temporary or shows a bigger change in how Bitcoin behaves in macro-driven markets. Until expectations of policy easing return, Bitcoin may continue to lag traditional risk assets even during broader market rallies.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin traded just below $77,000 during Asian hours on Wednesday, showing limited movement amid rising geopolitical tensions over the Strait of Hormuz. The world’s largest cryptocurrency edged up 0.1% over 24 hours but remained down 0.8% on the week, reflecting a cautious market tone.
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