Last updated on April 30th, 2026 at 01:15 pm
The US stock market has bounced back sharply in April, with major indices not only recovering from recent geopolitical shocks but pushing into record territory. This resurgence comes after weeks of volatility triggered by tensions between the United States and Iran, which had briefly shaken investor confidence.
Even as S&P 500 $SPY reached all-time hit today, investors remain skeptical and sidelined:
– many said long war = long bear
– but stocks bottom on bad news not “good”We expect leaders to be:
– crypto $ETH $BTC $BMNR
– MAG7/software $MAGS $IGVGreat speaking with… https://t.co/5hTtN3Wcl9
— Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FundstratDirect.com (@fundstrat) April 15, 2026
Market rebound defies geopolitical pressure
The S&P 500 climbed to 7,022.95 on April 15, surpassing its previous peak from January, while the Nasdaq closed at a record 24,016. The rally effectively erased losses incurred during the height of the conflict, when the S&P 500 had dropped nearly 9%.
A key factor behind the turbulence was the spike in oil prices, which surged above $100 per barrel following disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. However, easing fears of prolonged conflict has helped stabilize prices and restore optimism across global markets.
BitMine Chairman Tom Lee believes this recovery signals more than just a rebound. According to him, the market has demonstrated an unexpected ability to withstand external shocks, particularly rising oil prices that have strained other economies.
Strong earnings and spending boost confidence
Lee highlights corporate earnings as another reason for his bullish outlook. He notes that earnings have continued to rise despite the conflict, suggesting that the US economy may be benefiting from increased defence spending.
Government expenditure tied to the conflict is estimated at around $30 billion monthly, with the potential to climb even higher. This level of spending, Lee argues, is providing a meaningful boost to economic activity. While higher oil prices have increased household expenses, he estimates the additional burden at roughly $12 billion per month, significantly lower than the economic stimulus from defense outlays.
He also challenges the widely held belief that oil spikes will trigger severe inflation. Historical trends, according to Lee, show that the impact on core inflation tends to be less dramatic than expected.
With these factors in play, Lee maintains a year-end S&P 500 target of 7,300, implying further upside. For now, the market’s resilience is reinforcing investor confidence amid global uncertainty.
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