Four newly created crypto wallets generated a combined $663K in profits on the prediction platform Polymarket after correctly wagering on a U.S.–Iran ceasefire, raising fresh concerns about potential insider trading in decentralized markets.
Blockchain data shows the wallets were created and funded on Tuesday, with no prior transaction history before placing bets on a market predicting a ceasefire agreement by April 7. The trades were executed at low implied probabilities ranging from 2.9% to 10.3%, amplifying returns once the outcome materialized.
Four suspected insiders made $663K betting on a US–Iran ceasefire by April 7.
Most of these wallets:
• Were newly created and funded on April 7
• Bought “YES” just hours before the ceasefire
• Had no prior activity — only bet on this event
• Entered at very low odds: 3.9%,… pic.twitter.com/UtuVapSeEK— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) April 8, 2026
A prediction market tracking geopolitical outcomes shows overwhelming confidence that a US–Iran ceasefire will occur before other major events, with odds near certainty. Competing scenarios such as leadership change in Iran or a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire happening first, are viewed as highly unlikely. Despite the strong market consensus, user comments reveal ongoing skepticism and uncertainty, highlighting a disconnect between trader positioning and public sentiment.
Timing of bets raises red flags
One of the wallets placed its first trade at 1:59 p.m. UTC on Tuesday, approximately eight and a half hours before U.S. President Donald Trump publicly confirmed a ceasefire agreement at 10:32 p.m. UTC. The remaining two wallets initiated positions earlier, at 10:01 a.m. UTC on Tuesday and 8:50 p.m. UTC on Monday.
Following confirmation of a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, Polymarket settled the market, distributing profits of $200,525, $158,600, and $125,450 across the three wallets. While the agreement signalled a temporary de-escalation, both sides have left the door open for further military action.
Prediction markets face growing scrutiny
This case shows an increasing trend of regulations on cryptographically-based prediction platforms that have grown in popularity as another platform for speculative trading. The monthly volume of trades in these markets regularly tops $10 billion due to the need to be able to trade geopolitically and macroeconomically on-the-spot.
But, at the same time, these markets’ transparency has made them prone to various vulnerabilities. Insider trading and market manipulation remain a focus for regulators worldwide due to the specific nature of these markets.
In another crypto betting development, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, has announced a $600 million strategic investment in Polymarket.
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