Bitcoin surged past $70,000 following a temporary pause in U.S. strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, according to Wintermute. The announcement from former President Trump, citing productive diplomatic talks, prompted a rapid unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium that had weighed on oil and risk assets. Brent crude fell sharply, and Bitcoin rose intraday toward $71,000 as short positions were squeezed.
The cryptocurrency recovered from the $60K–$62K demand zone, reclaiming its 100-day moving average, signalling a potential uptrend. Analysts see resistance between $75K and $80K, with momentum potentially pushing toward $100K, though muted trading volume suggests caution. Market watchers are monitoring for a possible short squeeze if buying continues.
— Wintermute (@wintermute_t) March 24, 2026
Crypto shows resilience amid macro pressures
Despite a recent 3.4% drop triggered by the March 18 FOMC meeting, Bitcoin’s derivatives markets remained relatively stable. The rally was largely driven by short covering and gamma pressure rather than fresh spot buying. Institutional interest in digital assets remains strong, with Ethereum ETFs recording record weekly inflows of $160.8 million. Bitcoin’s performance continues to outpace gold, which suffered its worst weekly decline since 1983 amid a strengthening dollar.
Geopolitics to drive next week’s moves
The Fed’s steady rate stance at 3.50–3.75% keeps interest rates higher-for-longer, limiting macro support for risk assets. Market participants are now focused on geopolitical developments and oil flows in the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts suggest Bitcoin could test $74,000–$76,000 if tanker traffic normalizes and diplomacy holds.
Conversely, renewed disruptions could push BTC back toward mid-$60,000 levels. Sustained easing in energy tensions could remove macro headwinds and create momentum for Bitcoin to approach $80,000, particularly if institutional dip-buying continues. Meanwhile, Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone has doubled down on his bearish outlook, warning that Bitcoin ($BTC) could plummet to $10,000 in 2026.
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