Last updated on March 4th, 2026 at 01:48 pm
Bitcoin’s selling pressure appears to be losing steam, with technical signals pointing to a potential tactical rebound even as markets digest Middle East escalation risks. Markus Thielen’s latest chart shows BTC consolidating around the $60,000–$70,000 range after heavy unwinds, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) forms a bullish divergence, trending higher despite flat or lower prices.
The escalation of the Middle East conflict was widely anticipated and heavily discounted by traders, with much of the geopolitical risk already baked into prices, including an estimated $8–$ 10-per-barrel oil premium. Thielen expects a faster de-escalation than feared, which could relieve pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin and trigger a short-term bounce.
📊Today’s #Matrixport Daily Chart – March 2 , 2026 ⬇️
Crisis Priced In? Why Bitcoin’s Downside Momentum Is Stalling#Matrixport #Bitcoin #CryptoMarkets #RSI #MarketOutlook #RiskAssets pic.twitter.com/4FzwTTJm6f
— Matrixport Official (@Matrixport_EN) March 2, 2026
Bullish RSI divergence emerges
On the technical side, Bitcoin has struggled to push lower despite substantial position liquidations and reduced buying pressure.
The RSI has started climbing from oversold levels near 15%, creating a classic bullish divergence against the price action that has stayed range-bound or slightly down. As long as RSI keeps rising, downside momentum could continue to stall, making incremental short positions increasingly risky at current levels.
Geopolitical risk already factored in
The report argues that markets have priced in a significant portion of the crisis scenario, leaving room for relief if tensions ease sooner than expected. This setup makes risk assets like Bitcoin more asymmetric for tactical longs rather than fresh shorts.
While broader sentiment remains cautious, the combination of stalled downside momentum and pre-priced risks suggests any positive catalyst could spark a quick rebound. Thielen sees this as a moment where incremental short exposure carries outsized risk if the RSI divergence plays out.
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Bitcoin slipped below $65,000 in early Asia trading, triggering roughly $230 million in long liquidations as markets contend with heightened macro uncertainty.
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