Bernstein analysts are doubling down on stablecoins as an emerging financial frontier that’s rapidly changing, naming Circle and Coinbase as the most direct investment plays related to the growth of the sector.
This comes as there’s growing interest in the concept of “agentic machine payments,” which involves transactions carried out by artificial intelligence systems without human intervention.
Led by Gautam Chhugani, the analysts described this emerging payment model as a long-term opportunity rather than an immediate catalyst. While still in its early stages, they argue it introduces a new dimension of demand for stablecoins, particularly as digital economies become more automated.
Stablecoins positioned for the machine economy
At the centre of the thesis is USDC, the jointly supported stablecoin by Circle and Coinbase. Bernstein notes that stablecoins are uniquely suited for machine-to-machine transactions due to their programmability, speed, and global accessibility.
Circle, Coinbase seen as ‘best proxies’ for stablecoin upside as agentic payments emerge, Bernstein says
Bernstein analysts named Circle and Coinbase as top stablecoin proxies, citing USDC adoption and early agentic machine-payment opportunities. pic.twitter.com/vLCQcGWvfK
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Unlike traditional payment systems, stablecoins can embed logic such as escrow conditions, automated revenue splits, and real-time settlement directly into transactions. This makes them ideal for AI agents that need to pay for services like data or computing power instantly.
Infrastructure is already taking shape. Coinbase is developing its x402 protocol to integrate payments into the internet’s HTTP layer, while Circle has launched nano-payment systems tailored for autonomous agents. Meanwhile, Stripe is advancing its Machine Payments Protocol through blockchain-focused initiatives.
Adoption is still early, but growth remains strong
While the excitement surrounding this technology may be warranted, the actual traction of machine payment systems to date has been limited. To be specific, the Stripe protocol saw only $5,000 in transactions during its first week of existence, while the Coinbase x402 protocol saw $25 million in transactions over the past month. These are not significant transactions compared to the overall stablecoin market, according to Bernstein.
What is significant, however, is the growth of overall stablecoin transactions. USDC saw record-high transaction volumes and supply as a result of increasing adoption of the coin for cross-border payments, remittance, and fintech. What’s more, it surpassed all other stablecoins to become the leader in transaction volume while still maintaining second place by capitalization.
The real investment story here, according to Bernstein, is the growth of overall stablecoin transactions. While agentic payments have upside potential, the growth of overall stablecoin transactions already puts Circle and Coinbase at the top of the list of beneficiaries of a rapidly maturing digital finance world.
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