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Chain of Thoughts

Bitcoin Sell-Off Shows Signs of Exhaustion, But Analysts Warn of Long Road to Recovery

Last updated on March 5th, 2026 at 10:03 am

After months of pressure, market watchers say Bitcoin may finally be finding its footing, though a swift rebound looks unlikely.

Bitcoin’s relentless sell-off could be nearing its end, offering temporary relief to investors fatigued by weeks of sideways trading. On Friday, prominent onchain analyst Willy Woo suggested that the recent bearish wave appears to have “exhausted,” potentially opening the door for a short-term consolidation phase.

BTC has hovered between $60,000 and $70,000 for the past three weeks, briefly dipping below $67,000 in late Thursday trading. According to Woo, the market may now stabilize for a month or more, with a possible rebound toward the mid-$70,000 range, though he cautioned such a move would likely face rejection.

Liquidity dries up as macro risks loom

Despite signs of seller fatigue, broader market conditions remain fragile. Woo noted that both spot and futures liquidity have deteriorated significantly, warning that Bitcoin has historically struggled to rally when both streams weaken simultaneously.

He also flagged macroeconomic uncertainty as a key risk. Bitcoin, he argued, has existed entirely within a long-term global macro bull market since its inception. Should that backdrop shift dramatically, Woo sees $30,000 as a major fallback support level, with $16,000 acting as a critical line to preserve Bitcoin’s long-term bullish structure.

Echoing a similar sentiment, Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, attributed the downturn to large holders unwinding positions. He cited cycle timing, quantum computing fears, and capital rotation into AI startups as contributing factors. Still, Hougan believes the bulk of selling pressure has passed, describing the phase as a “classic crypto winter” that will eventually give way to a new cycle high.

Sideways grind before the next breakout

Despite the current price suppression, the long-term outlook remains optimistic as distribution expands. 

Major banks, including Morgan Stanley and Bank of America, have recently opened access to Bitcoin ETFs for their wealth management clients, a move that is expected to drive assets under management (AUM) toward $220 billion by the end of 2026. 

Similarly, According to a report from financial services firm River, 2025 has marked a breakout year for Bitcoin’s institutional and sovereign uptake, even as the asset’s price action remains subdued.

 

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