Last updated on March 9th, 2026 at 02:42 am
Bitcoin has recorded $2.3 billion in realized losses over a seven-day average, marking what analysts describe as one of the most significant capitulation events in its history.
According to market analyst IT Tech in a note published on CryptoQuant, the scale of the losses places the current downturn among the top three to five largest drawdowns ever recorded for Bitcoin. The analyst compared the event to previous major collapses, including the 2021 market crash, the 2022 Terra-Luna and FTX fallout, and the mid-2024 correction.
This is one of the largest capitulation events in BTC history, rivaling the 2021 crash
“This puts us in the top 3-5 loss events ever recorded. Only a handful of moments in Bitcoin’s history have seen this level of capitulation.” – By @IT_Tech_PL pic.twitter.com/Unl0rpaeJG
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) February 12, 2026
Bitcoin is currently trading near $66,600, nearly 50% below its October all-time high of over $126,000. The asset recently recovered from a local low of $60,000 on February 6 but remains under sustained pressure.
Relief rally or start of a prolonged decline?
While extreme spikes in realized losses have historically preceded strong rebounds, analysts warned that the current bounce may not indicate an immediate recovery.
IT Tech noted that although Bitcoin briefly climbed above $70,000 earlier this week, such moves can occur even during extended bear markets.
“Relief rallies happen in prolonged downturns,”
the analyst warned, suggesting that the market could still face a
“deep and slow bleed-out.”
On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows Bitcoin’s realized price, currently around $55,000, has historically aligned with bear market bottoms. In past cycles, Bitcoin traded between 24% and 30% below this level before stabilizing, often entering a sideways consolidation phase prior to recovery.
Analysts eye $40K–$60K as key support zone
Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research, said the recent sell-off reflects heavy short-term holder panic, increased by other macroeconomic pressures and shifting market sentiment.
Although oversold conditions have often marked the early stages of recovery in previous cycles, Ruck warned that the market may need more time to form a definitive bottom. He pointed to indicators such as sustained institutional accumulation and miner stabilization as key signals to watch.
Ruck identified a potential support range of $40,000 to $60,000, depending on how market conditions evolve, a forecast that aligns closely with other analysts tracking Bitcoin’s current path.
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