Bitcoin Divergence From Nasdaq Signals Warning on Dollar Liquidity, Says Arthur Hayes

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has warned that Bitcoin’s recent price divergence from the Nasdaq 100 index serves as a critical warning for global dollar liquidity. In his latest “This is Fine” blog post, Hayes argues that while gold and equities have bucked trends to rise, Bitcoin’s disastrous performance in early 2026 is behaving exactly as expected in a tightening liquidity environment.

He suggests that Bitcoin remains a high-beta play on dollar liquidity, and its failure to track the soaring Nasdaq indicates that the “Pax Americana” credit pulse is losing its upward momentum.

“This Is Fine” is an essay on why $BTC is predicting an AI-adoption driven financial crisis which will be “solved” with printed monay!https://t.co/sp2NBHWorM pic.twitter.com/RTtEbogYAR
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) February 17, 2026

The liquidity trap and sovereign gold hoarding

Hayes explains that the current market landscape is split between price-insensitive sovereign buyers and liquidity-dependent retail assets. He notes that sovereign nations are frantically stockpiling gold to avoid potential U.S. asset seizures, a trend that accelerated after 2022 and continues into 2026. This sovereign appetite has decoupled gold from traditional inflationary metrics.

Conversely, Hayes points out that Bitcoin does not yet enjoy the same “reserve asset” status among central banks. Instead, it tracks the ebb and flow of dollar credit. With U.S. dollar liquidity declining, Hayes argues that Bitcoin’s rotten performance is a natural reaction, even as the AI bubble continues to prop up the Nasdaq.

Road to the 2026 bottom: $250,000 target?

Despite the short-term bearishness, Hayes remains a long-term optimist, forecasting a market bottom in January 2026. He anticipates that the Federal Reserve will eventually pivot toward Reserve Management Purchases, which would reinject liquidity into the system and drive Bitcoin toward a $250,000 target by the end of the cycle.

The BitMEX co-founder has reportedly allocated 90% of his capital to the market, favouring assets like Ethena (ENA) and privacy coins alongside $BTC. He believes the upcoming 2026 U.S. political cycle will force the government to increase spending regardless of the party in power, ultimately benefiting risk assets.

Meanwhile, Adam Back cautions that altering Bitcoin’s consensus mechanism to combat ‘spam,’ such as the Ordinals issue, would inflict greater damage on the network’s trust and stability than the problem itself. DeFi Planet examined this in the context of broader macroeconomic factors.

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