Quick Breakdown
- The Portuguese gambling regulator, SRIJ, has officially banned Polymarket for operating without a mandatory license.
- Officials cited a surge in suspicious betting activity linked to national political events as a primary reason for the immediate crackdown.
- The move follows a growing trend of European nations, including France and Romania, restricting the crypto-based prediction platform.
Portugal’s gambling regulator, the Serviço de Regulação e Inspeção de Jogos (SRIJ), has ordered the immediate blocking of Polymarket, the world’s largest crypto-based prediction market. The enforcement action comes as Portuguese authorities intensify their oversight of unlicensed digital betting platforms that bypass national regulatory frameworks. According to official statements, the platform’s failure to obtain a legal gambling license in the country made its operations illegal under Decree-Law 66/2015, which governs online games of chance and sports betting.
NEWS: 🇵🇹 Portugal orders Polymarket to shut down within 48 hours, citing the illegality of betting on political events. pic.twitter.com/aQXdSf35W8
— CoinGecko (@coingecko) January 20, 2026
Regulator cites suspicious betting activity
The SRIJ’s decision was reportedly triggered by a “dramatic surge” in platform usage during recent political cycles, during which wagers on election outcomes spiked. Authorities noted that over €4 million was wagered late in one specific contest as odds shifted sharply, raising red flags regarding potential insider trading and market manipulation. The regulator emphasized that blockchain technology does not exempt a platform from complying with the Portuguese Gambling Law, which requires all “counterparty betting” operators to undergo a rigorous licensing process.
Failure to comply with these regulations can result in severe penalties, with the SRIJ holding the power to issue fines ranging from €25,000 to €1,000,000. Portuguese internet service providers have been instructed to restrict access to the Polymarket domain within a “reasonable timeframe” to prevent further participation from local residents. This move aligns with Portugal’s ongoing enforcement strategy; in the second quarter of 2025 alone, the SRIJ issued 97 closure notifications and blocked 110 illegal websites.
Prediction markets face global pressure
The crackdown in Portugal is part of a broader, coordinated effort across Europe to rein in prediction markets that utilize cryptocurrencies like $USDC for wagering. Polymarket has recently faced similar bans in Romania, France, Belgium, and Poland as regulators increasingly categorize these services as “unregulated gambling” rather than mere information-aggregation tools. While some users attempt to bypass these restrictions using VPNs, the platform has reportedly implemented stricter detection software to comply with local mandates.
Despite these regional setbacks, Polymarket has been working toward a regulated relaunch in the United States following settlements with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The company recently acquired QCEX, a CFTC-licensed exchange, for $112 million to provide a compliant path for its derivatives-style event contracts. However, the European landscape remains fragmented, with Portuguese officials maintaining that any platform offering monetary prizes on future outcomes must operate under the state’s direct supervision.
Meanwhile, Polymarket has established a strategic partnership with Parcl to integrate real-time US housing market data into its blockchain-based prediction platform. This collaboration utilizes Parcl’s daily price indexes, enabling users to speculate on real estate price changes in major cities. The platform now offers transparent and verifiable settlement for these predictions.
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