Quick Breakdown
- Institutional investors are unlikely to drive Bitcoin to new highs without a major catalyst
- Regulatory clarity and Federal Reserve policy shifts remain the main bullish triggers
- Macro shocks or forced selling by corporate holders could push Bitcoin significantly lower
Bitcoin is unlikely to surge to fresh all-time highs this year on the back of institutional demand alone, according to macro researcher and FFTT founder Luke Gromen.
Speaking on an episode of Coin Stories published on YouTube on Wednesday, Gromen said investors expecting institutions to push Bitcoin sharply higher may be disappointed unless a major market-moving event emerges.
“What if [Bitcoin] goes to $40k? What if it goes to $30k? That’s not my base case…but I can see that happening.”
Luke Gromen shares that Bitcoin sentiment isn’t as bad as it could be (to signal a true bottom) and he isn’t expecting it to go to $150k any time soon.
Do you… https://t.co/pimjsueDfj pic.twitter.com/gHvBCoJ2Gy
— Natalie Brunell ⚡️ (@natbrunell) January 21, 2026
Gromen argued that large institutions typically wait for clear catalysts rather than aggressively chasing price momentum. Without regulatory clarity or a significant shift in macroeconomic conditions, he believes Bitcoin still has “a lot of work to do” before another major rally.
A move from Bitcoin’s current level near $89,880 to $150,000 would represent a roughly 67% gain and nearly 19% above its previous all-time high of $126,198, based on CoinMarketCap data.
Regulation and fed policy seen as key triggers
Among the catalysts investors are closely monitoring is the US CLARITY Act, which aims to define a regulatory framework for digital assets but now faces uncertainty around its rollout.
Gromen also pointed to the possibility of additional quantitative easing, including further interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve, as a factor that could meaningfully alter Bitcoin’s trajectory.
While institutional inflows remain a popular bullish narrative, Gromen cautioned that macro shocks not steady accumulation are typically what drive explosive price moves.
Institutional demand persists, but risks remain
On Wednesday, Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, said institutional funds have accumulated roughly 577,000 Bitcoin over the past year, worth about $53 billion. “Still flowing in,” Ju said.
Meanwhile, asset manager Grayscale has previously cited rising institutional demand and improving US regulations as reasons Bitcoin could reach new highs in the first half of 2026.
Gromen, however, warned that downside risks remain. He said Bitcoin could “easily” fall toward $60,000 in scenarios such as an all-out trade war, a US-led global economic slowdown, or a recession that forces corporate Bitcoin holders to sell.
Michael Saylor’s firm, Strategy, remains the largest public Bitcoin holder with 709,715 BTC, valued at approximately $63.77 billion. In total, public companies now hold around 1.13 million Bitcoin, worth over $101 billion, according to BitcoinTreasuries.NET.
If you would like to read more articles like this, visit DeFi Planet and follow us on Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram, and CoinMarketCap Community.
Take control of your crypto portfolio with MARKETS PRO, DeFi Planet’s suite of analytics tools.”
