Last updated on January 10th, 2026 at 05:21 pm
Quick Breakdown
- VanEck predicts Bitcoin could reach $2.9 million by 2050 if it becomes a global trade settlement asset.
- The forecast assumes Bitcoin settles up to 10% of international trade, similar to today’s British pound.
- Central bank adoption and monetary debasement are seen as major long-term drivers.
Bitcoin is already carving out a role in global trade, particularly in sanctioned economies such as Venezuela, Iran, and Russia, but its use remains minimal across G7 countries. That gap could narrow significantly over the coming decades, according to new projections from asset manager VanEck.
Bitcoin as a future settlement currency
VanEck estimates that Bitcoin could climb to $2.9 million by 2050 under its base-case scenario, assuming a 15% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR). The forecast is built on the idea that Bitcoin will settle 5–10% of global international trade and around 5% of domestic trade over the next 25 years.
For context, SWIFT data shows that the US dollar dominated international trade payments as of September 2025, accounting for 47.8%, followed by the euro at 22.8% and the British pound at 7.4%. Under VanEck’s model, Bitcoin’s trade usage would roughly match the pound’s current role in global settlement.
Central banks, liquidity, and long-term value
VanEck’s head of digital assets research, Matthew Sigel, and senior investment analyst Patrick Bush argue that Bitcoin’s long-term appeal lies less in short-term price swings and more in its role as a hedge against monetary instability.
They project that central banks could eventually allocate 2.5% of their reserves to Bitcoin. At a $2.9 million price, Bitcoin would represent about 1.66% of global financial assets, a level the analysts see as plausible amid ongoing liquidity expansion and sovereign debt pressures.
While this base case assumes moderation, VanEck outlined wide-ranging outcomes. A bearish scenario sees Bitcoin growing at just 2% CAGR to around $130,000, while a bullish case projects a 20% CAGR, pushing prices as high as $52.4 million. Meanwhile, Bitcoin entered a period of stagnant price action that experts describe as a critical “cooling phase,” following its failure to sustain a year-end rally in 2025.
Notably, the 15% growth assumption marks a step down from VanEck’s more aggressive 25% CAGR forecast made in December 2024, when the firm suggested a large US Bitcoin reserve could materially reduce national debt by 2049.
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