Last updated on January 3rd, 2026 at 11:35 am
Quick Breakdown
- Pompliano says compressed volatility reduces the odds of an 80% Bitcoin crash.
- Lack of a year-end blow-off rally may provide downside stability.
- Other analysts still warn Bitcoin could revisit $60K–$65K by 2026.
Bitcoin’s underwhelming year-end price action may actually be a positive signal, lowering the risk of a deep market crash in early 2026, according to Bitcoin entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano.
Speaking on CNBC on Tuesday, Pompliano said the sharp decline in Bitcoin’s volatility makes a historic drawdown far less likely, even if investors are disappointed by the lack of explosive upside.
Lower volatility could mean more downside protection
Pompliano noted that Bitcoin’s volatility has compressed significantly, and many market participants are overlooking a development he believes.
“Given where volatility is right now, it would be very surprising to see Bitcoin suffer a 70% or 80% drawdown,”
he said, adding that such crashes typically follow extreme speculative blow-off tops, something Bitcoin failed to deliver this cycle.
While Bitcoin did not surge toward the widely predicted $250,000 target, Pompliano argued that the absence of a euphoric rally may be providing structural stability.
Zooming out: Bitcoin’s long-term performance remains strong.
Despite short-term frustration among investors, Pompliano emphasized Bitcoin’s long-term gains, urging holders to look beyond yearly price targets.
Bitcoin has doubled over the past two years and is up nearly 300% over three years, he said, describing the asset as one of the strongest performers across global financial markets.
“We didn’t get the blow-off top people expected,”
Pompliano explained,
“but we also didn’t get the massive crash that usually follows.”
At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading at around $87,436, down roughly 7.4% since the start of the year, according to CoinMarketCap.
Not all analysts agree on Bitcoin’s outlook
While Pompliano remains optimistic, other market veterans are less bullish on Bitcoin’s medium-term trajectory.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt warned that Bitcoin could drop 35% to around $58,000 because of what he calls a “massive broadening top. Similarly, Fidelity’s director of global macro research, Jurrien Timmer, warned that 2026 could be a “pause year” for Bitcoin, with prices potentially sliding toward the $65,000 level.
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