Bitcoin may be showing one of the earliest signs that the worst phase of its latest slide is easing, according to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.
In a post on X, Glassnode lead research analyst Cryptovizart said a key metric tracking realized losses by Bitcoin holders who have held their coins for one to two years is beginning to reverse. Historically, this move has appeared near the later stages of bear markets after prolonged selling by investors who bought during higher price levels.
One of the metrics I watch most closely when trying to gauge a bear market’s end is, Realized Loss volume (in USD) by the 1-2 year holders.
This age bracket captures coins last moved roughly 12 to 24 months ago, placing them closest to cycle-peak buyers. As frustration builds… https://t.co/ZVfB1VgFVl pic.twitter.com/v2W2pleOOK
— cryptovizart (@cryptovizart) July 16, 2026
The analyst said the trend is worth monitoring because it has often shown that heavy selling pressure from this group is fading.
Glassnode sees realized loss trend begin to reverse
Glassnode’s analysis focuses on Bitcoin holders whose coins last moved between July 2024 and July 2025. During that period, Bitcoin climbed from about $62,800 to roughly $107,000, meaning many investors who entered near the peak are now holding unrealized losses.
According to Cryptovizart, these holders typically begin selling at a loss after extended periods of weak price performance, increasing realized losses across the network.
However, Glassnode’s 30-day moving average of realized losses for this group recently climbed above $75 million before starting to decline. The analyst noted that similar reversals in previous market cycles have coincided with the end of the heaviest distribution phase, making the latest development an important signal to watch.
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Why are 1–2 year holders important?
Investors who have held Bitcoin for one to two years are often considered a key group during market downturns because they include buyers who entered during the later stages of a bull market.
As prices remain below their purchase levels, many eventually sell at a loss, adding pressure to the market. Glassnode said bear markets have historically reached a more stable phase only after this group largely finishes selling.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin open interest across major centralized exchanges remains well below the record levels seen during the market’s 2025 peak, suggesting traders have yet to return to aggressive leveraged positions.
Can Bitcoin overcome the $69,000 resistance?
Beyond realized losses, Glassnode said Bitcoin’s next major test is around the $69,000 level, which represents the aggregate cost basis of short-term holders and aligns with the previous all-time high from the 2021 bull market.
In its latest The Week Onchain report, the analytics firm said the level could trigger strong selling as investors who bought near that price seek to break even.
Glassnode added that a decisive move above $69,000 would strengthen the case for further recovery, while another rejection could keep Bitcoin trading within its current range.
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