Bitcoin achieved an all time high in october 2025 to surpass $126,000. 2026 saw a sharp decline as Bitcoin (BTC) dipped in early 2026, falling nearly 20–30% from its 2025 highs to hover around $60,000–$68,000 by March/April 2026. A new Tiger Research has projected a $143,000 12-month price target for Bitcoin, pointing to continued macro support and improving on-chain conditions despite recent market weakness.
The updated outlook comes after Bitcoin declined roughly 27% from earlier highs, trading near $70,500 in April. While the target is lower than previous projections, analysts say the pullback has widened potential upside, now estimated at more than 100% from current levels.
This report aligns with what Citigroup projected in late 2025, the organization noted that Bitcoin could reach about $143,000 within 12 months, with a bull case above $189,000 and a bear case around $78,500. The outlook was driven by ETF inflows, clearer regulation, and strong equity markets, but later updates in 2026 lowered the target to around $112,000, reflecting ongoing volatility and uncertainty.
— Tiger Research (@tiger_research_) April 22, 2026
Macro support holds as liquidity expands and flows return
The total M2 money supply has reached record levels above $134 trillion, although much of the growth has been concentrated in China, limiting direct impact on crypto markets due to capital restrictions.
In the U.S., inflation rose to 3.3% in March following a shock tied to Middle East tensions, slowing expectations for aggressive rate cuts. Despite this, the broader policy direction remains tilted toward easing, which analysts say continues to support risk assets over the medium term.
Institutional sentiment is also shifting with Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have returned to net inflows after months of outflows, while corporate accumulation remains active, reinforcing demand at current price levels.
On-chain signals recover as market enters early equilibrium
From on-chain data, it is clear that Bitcoin is exiting its fear phase and entering into the early stages of recovery. Indicators have levelled off, with Bitcoin’s price currently trading at a level below the long-term holders’ average cost.
There is resistance coming up around the $78,000 price point, which is viewed as a major factor for initiating a reversal. The average cost basis of the network at about $54,000 is regarded as the crucial level on the downside. According to Tiger Research, the sentiment is positive, indicating a balanced picture of weaker fundamentals amid favourable macro developments.
Interestingly, Bitcoin has also shown unusual stability in recent weeks, trading within a relatively tight range despite shifting interest rate expectations, geopolitical tensions, and wider market uncertainty.
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