Exchange-traded fund issuers Bitwise Asset Management and GraniteShares have filed proposals with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to launch a new category of investment products tied to U.S. election outcomes.
According to filings submitted on Tuesday, Bitwise plans to introduce six ETFs under the “PredictionShares” brand on NYSE Arca. The products would track binary event contracts linked to the 2028 presidential election and the 2026 congressional races, allowing investors to gain exposure to which party wins the White House, Senate, or House of Representatives.
NEW: @BitwiseInvest filing for prediction market backed ETFs under brand name PredictionShares. pic.twitter.com/OMDqBYEEEt
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) February 17, 2026
Prediction-style ETFs seek to follow U.S. election outcomes
Each fund would be required to invest at least 80% of its assets in event contracts traded on markets regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. These contracts have binary payouts of $1 if the predicted political outcome occurs and $0 otherwise, so the funds could potentially see a large increase in value or lose most of their value depending on the outcome of elections.
At the same time, the US derivatives regulator is working on a new regulatory framework for prediction markets, since prediction market platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have seen billions of dollars in trading volume as users are able to place bets on outcomes related to politics, sports, and real-world events.
Prediction markets come closer to mainstream finance
The proposed funds essentially provide a way to invest in prediction markets through traditional ETFs, allowing investors to place bets on political events through a brokerage account. The stock price would fluctuate according to market expectations, reflecting the underlying probabilities of an event based on polling data, news events, and market sentiment.
GraniteShares also submitted a parallel lineup with a nearly identical structure, reinforcing the growing interest in “ETF-izing” event contracts. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart described the filings as part of a broader trend toward the financialization of new asset classes.
These filings follow similar proposals from Roundhill Investments earlier in February, suggesting issuers expect demand for politically linked financial products if regulators allow them to proceed.
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