Last updated on December 18th, 2025 at 05:09 pm
Quick Breakdown:
- $BTC$’s correlation with the Nasdaq 100 Index has recently shown a distinct negative asymmetry, meaning the asset reacts more intensely to stock market downturns than it benefits from uptrends.
- This structural negative bias is typically observed during broader crypto bear markets, making it a pronounced risk given $BTC$’s current price level.
- The heightened vulnerability to macro risk-off sentiment suggests Bitcoin is currently underperforming and reacting to, rather than driving, risk appetite.
According to reports from Wintermute, Bitcoin’s Bearish Skew to Nasdaq Sentiment, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, is currently exhibiting an uneven relationship with the traditional financial market, specifically the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index.
Historically seen as a ‘risk asset’ that moves in concert with Wall Street, the relationship has developed a significant bearish bias. The core issue is that $BTC$ tends to tumble in tandem with the Nasdaq during sell-offs, but it has decoupled mainly on the upside, failing to benefit from recent Wall Street rallies near record highs.
This asymmetric response suggests that while the bullish correlation may have faded, the bearish, risk-off link remains intact, a dynamic $BTC$ traders cannot afford to ignore. The performance gap between BTC and the Nasdaq 100 has intensified, reaching levels not seen since the late 2022 bear market. This growing disconnect, along with where BTC is currently trading, suggests the market is leaning toward a structurally weaker performance for Bitcoin right now.
BTC still moves with equities, but only when it hurts
The correlation remains high at ~0.8, but BTC reacts more to Nasdaq losses than gains
This negative performance skew is now at levels last seen in late 2022, yet we’re sitting near all-time highs pic.twitter.com/TO5OGSjzx1
— Wintermute (@wintermute_t) November 13, 2025
Why the Asymmetry is a risk factor
The high correlation with the Nasdaq has traditionally been one of the primary bearish arguments against $BTC$, positing it as “just another risk-on asset”. However, the current negative skew means $BTC$ is losing one of its supposed benefits: amplified returns during a stock market rally, while retaining disproportionate pain during a decline. This trend of only reacting swiftly to pessimism and largely ignoring optimism has been attributed to a potential shift in market focus towards equities. As the Nasdaq has recently shown signs of forming a bearish reversal, the continued tight-but-uneven linkage acts as a warning sign for $BTC$ traders. If Wall Street indices retreat, $BTC$ is likely to follow, potentially breaking decisively below key technical averages.
Contextualizing the macro shift
This current negative performance bias is unusual for $BTC$ when it is trading near all-time highs, signalling a potential shift in market sentiment, where investors view $BTC$ more as a macro-risk amplifier rather than an independent asset. It is crucial for investors aiming to make informed decisions about their portfolios to understand this relationship, especially in times of economic uncertainty. While $BTC$ was once expected to act as a safe-haven asset during market recessions, this increasing, yet uneven, correlation with technology stocks complicates its role as a diversifier.
Meanwhile, Japanese investment firm Metaplanet recently reported a significant 39% decline in its quarterly Bitcoin valuation gains, falling to $1.4 billion, highlighting the risk exposure for corporate treasuries that hold substantial cryptocurrency assets. Despite Metaplanet’s Bitcoin portfolio being 5% underwater, as the average acquisition cost is higher than the current market price, it remains committed to its long-term strategy of accumulating assets. Compounding the firm’s challenges, its stock price has dropped by 27% due to regulatory scrutiny in Japan. However, the CEO denies that the company is the specific target of the proposed regulatory tightening.
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