China’s potential response to rising U.S. tariffs may trigger another wave of capital flight into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, says Arthur Hayes, founder of crypto exchange BitMEX. As the U.S. gears up to impose more sweeping trade duties, Beijing could devalue its currency—which Hayes believes may reignite the crypto bull market.
Taking to X on April 8, Hayes remarked,
“If not the Fed, then the PBOC will give us the Yahtzee ingredients,”
alluding to the monetary shift needed to push crypto prices higher. He argued that a weakened yuan historically drives Chinese investors toward Bitcoin as a means of wealth preservation and capital mobility.
“It worked in 2013, 2015, and can work in 2025,”
he said.
If not the Fed then the PBOC will give us the yachtzee ingredients.
CNY deval = narrative that Chinese capital flight will flow into $BTC.
It worked in 2013 , 2015, and can work in 2025.
Ignore China at your own peril. pic.twitter.com/LAOeQZEjZt
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) April 8, 2025
Bybit CEO also predicts Yuan devaluation
Echoing similar sentiments, Bybit CEO Ben Zhou also predicted a potential yuan devaluation in response to U.S. trade pressures, which historically correlates with increased interest in Bitcoin. For example, in August 2015, the yuan saw its largest decline in decades, leading to a surge in Bitcoin interest.
A similar pattern occurred in August 2019 when the yuan fell below the 7:1 mark against the dollar, according to GoogleFinance, coinciding with a 20% rise in Bitcoin, suggesting that Chinese investors might use cryptocurrency as a hedge against economic instability. Grayscale Investments noted in a 2019 report that yuan depreciation could drive Bitcoin price movements, as wealthy Chinese investors often seek crypto to navigate capital controls and safeguard their assets.
The renewed speculation follows U.S. President Joe Biden’s April 7 pledge to escalate tariffs on Chinese goods. In response, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a firm warning, stating it would “resolutely take countermeasures” to protect its economic interests.
Notably, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced plans to tighten export controls on critical materials, including tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum, and indium. The ministry cited the need to safeguard national interests and security, a move that could have significant implications for global supply chains.
Why a Weaker Yuan Could Help Bitcoin
The Bitcoin case becomes stronger if yuan weakness is accompanied by concerns about fiat currencies and global monetary policy. Chinese investors have historically faced restrictions on moving capital offshore, meaning a potential increase in demand for Bitcoin would not necessarily appear through direct mainland cryptocurrency purchases.
China has maintained strict restrictions on domestic crypto trading. However, offshore markets, Hong Kong and other financial channels provide different routes through which Chinese capital can gain exposure to digital assets.
Bitcoin’s global liquidity also makes the asset different from earlier market cycles. Institutional investors now have considerably easier access to Bitcoin through regulated investment products, while derivatives and other financial instruments have expanded the market.
As a result, a major macroeconomic event in China does not need to create direct mainland Bitcoin buying to influence the asset’s price. Instead, it could change global investor sentiment toward the dollar, yuan, gold, Bitcoin and other alternative assets.
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