Last updated on March 4th, 2026 at 01:25 pm
Crypto markets remained largely range-bound over the weekend as geopolitical tensions escalated following the United States’ military action against Iran. The initial strike on Saturday caused Bitcoin to dip to $63,000 and Ethereum to fall to $1,910, before both digital assets retraced back into their prevailing trading ranges.
Approximately $300 million in long liquidations were triggered, a figure that analysts describe as notable but contained compared to previous volatility events in early February.
Experts comment that this muted reaction might be a sign of less positioning over the last weeks, but it might also indicate that the concept of a “Weekend macro hedge” for Bitcoin might be shifting to other assets like tokenized gold, which continues to trade throughout the weekend and increasingly absorbs flows over the last weeks of geopolitical tensions.
The options markets also show a muted reaction, with 1-day implied volatility spiking to 93 per cent but failing to sustain above 60 per cent.
Historical patterns and market positioning
Market participants drew parallels to the US strike on Iran in June last year. At that time, Bitcoin broke below $100,000 before rebounding above that level and ultimately rallying to $123,000 in the following weeks.
Current options activity, including large call positions on March expiry Bitcoin contracts, suggests some traders are positioning for a potential rebound despite five consecutive months of losses. Analysts highlight that limited military objectives signalled by the Trump administration may be helping markets absorb the initial shock while containing fears of a prolonged conflict.
Ongoing risks and uncertainty
Despite the relatively stable price action, caution remains paramount. The conflict is still in its early stages, and the potential for escalation involving other Gulf states is a key concern. Investors are closely monitoring Iran’s ability to target Israel and US military assets, along with the United States’ capacity to safeguard the Strait of Hormuz.
Notably, according to a recent report from Santiment, crypto markets are showing signs of accumulation as investors anticipate the White House’s March 1 internal deadline related to the Clarity Act.
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