A new report from Matrix on Target lays out a framework for identifying Bitcoin’s true cycle low, offering investors a structured approach to timing entries during the current bear phase. The analysis revisits the firm’s previous calls, including flagging the start of the last bull market in October 2022, projecting a $125,000 top in mid-2023, and confirming a bearish shift after Bitcoin broke critical levels in late 2025.
Bitcoin is now trading well below its 21-week moving average, a level widely viewed as a dividing line between bull and bear regimes. According to the report, the current setup resembles past cycle drawdowns, where sharp declines were followed by prolonged exhaustion phases before accumulation returned.
📃#MatrixOnTarget Report – February 13, 2026 ⬇️
How to Identify Bitcoin’s True Cycle Bottom — And When to Buy with Confidence#Matrixport #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #MarketCycles #CycleBottom #BearMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #OnChain #RiskManagement pic.twitter.com/ysYVBTk1N6
— Matrixport Official (@Matrixport_EN) February 13, 2026
Bear phase mirrors historical resets
Matrix notes that Bitcoin’s price action since the 2025 peak closely tracks previous multi-year corrections. Extended periods below the 21-week moving average have historically marked reset phases, during which downside momentum gradually fades and stronger hands begin to accumulate.
Charts spanning 2019 through early 2026 show similar patterns of steep selloffs followed by consolidation. In prior cycles, these conditions eventually created high probability entry points once selling pressure was fully absorbed.
Framework points to high probability entry signals
The report combines quantitative models, technical thresholds, and on-chain data to determine when markets shift from defence to offence. Rather than attempting to catch falling knives, the framework focuses on confirmation signals such as exhaustion in selling, early signs of conviction buying, and decisive breaks above key moving averages.
While demand remains soft and accumulation appears limited for now, Matrix argues that the same indicators that identified the 2022 bottom and the 2025 top should help signal the next major turning point.
Meanwhile, bitcoin fell roughly 15% between January 28 and January 31, with selling pressure accelerating into the weekend. Saturday alone saw a 10% drop, triggering more than $2 billion in long liquidations across futures markets.
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