Last updated on March 11th, 2026 at 03:05 pm
Bitcoin could face further downside in the weeks or months ahead, with prices potentially sliding toward long-term support levels that have historically marked cycle bottoms, according to a note from Galaxy Digital’s head of research, Alex Thorn.
— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) February 2, 2026
Liquidations push bitcoin below key cost levels
Bitcoin fell roughly 15% between January 28 and January 31, with selling pressure accelerating into the weekend. Saturday alone saw a 10% drop, triggering more than $2 billion in long liquidations across futures markets—one of the largest liquidation events on record.
The move dragged BTC down to $75,644 on Coinbase, briefly pushing prices below the average cost basis of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, estimated at $84,000. At one point, Bitcoin also dipped under Strategy’s average entry price around $76,000 and came close to its April 2025 low near $74,400.
Following the sell-off, roughly 46% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is now held at a loss, a level that has historically appeared near market bottoms. January also closed with Bitcoin posting its fourth consecutive red monthly candle, something last seen in 2018.
On-chain gaps and the path to the 200-week average
Galaxy’s analysis highlights a notable ownership gap between $70,000 and $80,000 based on on-chain data, raising the likelihood that Bitcoin could trade lower to test demand in that range. Thorn also noted that in past cycles, once Bitcoin lost its 50-week moving average as it did in late 2025 price eventually reverted toward the 200-week moving average.
That long-term indicator currently sits near $58,000, close to Bitcoin’s realized price around $56,000. While BTC doesn’t always reach these levels, Thorn said they have consistently served as strong entry points for long-term investors.
Supporting this sentiment, Bitcoin fell below the $80,000 support level on Saturday following the confirmation of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair.
Enjoyed this piece? Bookmark DeFi Planet, explore related topics, and follow us on Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram, Threads and CoinMarketCap Community for seamless access to high-quality industry insights.
“Take control of your crypto portfolio with MARKETS PRO, DeFi Planet’s suite of analytics tools.”
