Quick Breakdown:
- Arthur Hayes predicts Trump-era yield curve control could unleash over $15 trillion in new credit by 2028.
- The policy may steepen the yield curve, devalue the U.S. dollar, and trigger massive monetary expansion.
- Hayes sees Bitcoin as the biggest winner, projecting a potential rally to $3.4 million in the coming cycle.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, is sounding the alarm on what he calls a once-in-a-generation monetary shift that could unleash trillions in new credit and drive Bitcoin to record-breaking levels. In his latest Crypto Trader Digest, Hayes outlined a policy blueprint—linked to Treasury Secretary-designate “Buffalo Bill” Bessent and former President Donald Trump—that centres on aggressive yield curve control (YCC) to reindustrialize the U.S. economy.
As promised “Four, Seven” discusses the Trump takeover of the Fed and is the corresponding essay to my KBW speech this morning.https://t.co/NV2XQei69d pic.twitter.com/9NKC8uq7An
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) September 23, 2025
Trump’s path to fed domination
Hayes compares the proposed plan to the 1942–1951 era, when the U.S. capped Treasury yields to finance World War II. By fixing short-term rates via the interest paid on bank reserves and suppressing long-term yields through massive bond purchases, the Federal Reserve could keep borrowing costs artificially low while printing money to buy unlimited government debt.
He argues that this steep yield curve would channel credit into regional banks and small to medium-sized businesses, fueling a manufacturing revival and large-scale social programs. However, to execute such a strategy, Trump would first need to appoint political allies to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the Federal Open Market Committee before the 2026 midterms, thereby gaining control over interest on reserves, discount rates, and open-market operations.
Bitcoin as the ultimate winner
If implemented, Hayes projects that more than $15 trillion in fresh credit could flood the financial system by 2028, crushing the dollar’s purchasing power against gold and other fiat currencies. In that scenario, Bitcoin emerges as what Hayes calls “the strongest asset in an era of monetary expansion,” with a directional price target of $3.4 million, far beyond its current trading range near $115,000.
Hayes stresses this is not a certainty but a logical consequence of unchecked money printing and structural yield suppression.
Broader warnings on U.S. debt
Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio has echoed similar concerns. In a direct release of his recent interview responses, Dalio warned that ballooning U.S. debt and growing political interference in monetary policy are undermining the Federal Reserve’s independence and the dollar’s credibility.
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