Bitcoin is nearing a potential breakout as retail traders overtake whales in the futures market, while Ethereum contends with high leverage despite record-setting institutional inflows.
Data on BTC futures order sizes shows a clear shift from whale-led trading in late 2024 and early 2025 periods that saw strong rallies to a market now dominated by smaller retail orders. Analysts note that whale activity near market peaks often signals distribution phases, but the recent drop in large-scale trades suggests major holders are waiting on the sidelines. This change leaves Bitcoin well positioned for a push above its all-time high in the coming weeks if large sellers do not return.
The bullish sentiment is reinforced by Bitcoin reclaiming a key technical marker that has historically preceded short-term rallies. According to a June 25 analysis by CryptoQuant contributor İbrahim COŞAR, the cryptocurrency has moved back above its 50-day exponential moving average, a widely watched gauge for trend reversals.
Ethereum is facing a critical test as prices hover between $4,020 and $4,060 while market-wide leverage approaches historically high levels. The all-exchange estimated leverage ratio has risen to 0.68, signaling an elevated risk of sharp volatility. Binance’s lower reading of 0.52 points to heavier leverage on other platforms.
ETH Market Tension: Resistance Test Amid Bullish Fundamentals
“Outlook: Volatility ahead, but bullish structure intact.
Short-Term: High leverage + resistance + exchange inflows increase the risk of sharp downside volatility.
Mid-Term: Strong institutional inflows, ETF demand,… pic.twitter.com/Tgz26e9O9u
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) August 11, 2025
Elevated net inflows to Binance could also indicate potential localized sell pressure driven by liquidations or arbitrage trades.
Despite the near-term caution, Ethereum’s medium-term outlook remains strong. U.S. spot ETH ETFs posted a record $726.6 million in daily net inflows, led by BlackRock and Fidelity, lifting total holdings above 5 million ETH valued at about $20.3 billion. Ark Invest purchased $108.57 million in ETH, and Fundamental Global committed $200 million to its treasury.
On-chain activity continues to grow, with transaction volumes at all-time highs, staking participation increasing, and regulatory clarity emerging on liquid staking. Upcoming upgrades, Pectra and Fusaka, aim to boost scalability and cut transaction costs. Key ETH support is between $3,980 and $4,020, while resistance lies at $4,450 to $4,550.
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