Tracking the past couple of weeks, the fall in the BTC prices started with the release of 7.5% inflation rates that broke the 40-year high record. Bitcoin gave a 5% fall within 48 hours of the press release and found support near $42K. However, the support-backed reversal failed to rise above $44.5K and gave a double top fallout on February 17th.
The double top pattern fallout drove the BTC price to $40K, but the underlying bullishness fought to guard the crucial psychological support. Nonetheless, the prices broke the $40K mark, and the short-coming support trendline got cracked on February 20th.
(HODL stands for “hold on for dear life,” which became a mainstream term after a typo in a Reddit post meant to HOLD)
As the bears take a breather, the bulls recover 2.90% on February 22th with 9 hours left on the clock. The cryptocurrency shows lower price rejection near the support zone of $36.5K and propels above the $37.5K.
However, the recovery may come as a retest of the trendline fallout, and a trend reversal is possible once the retest is successful.
Moving Average Convergence/Divergence Indicator: The MACD indicator shows a negative trend of histograms in the daily BTC/USD chart. The lines give a bearish crossover and maintain a downward direction to break the zero mark.
Relative Strength Index Indicator: The RSI slope falls between 50% and 30% in the nearly oversold zone. Despite the recent spike, the downtrend in the RSI slope below the 14-days average line shows a weakness in the underlying bullishness compared to last fortnight.
Exponential Moving Averages: After the recent death cross (50-day Exponential average line crossing below the 200-day EMA), the falling trend of the EMAs provides a bearish influence to the BTC/USD chart.
Moreover, the Bitcoin price recently failed twice to sustain above the 50-day EMA, indicating a significant supply area moving along the average line.
Onchain Technicalities
The Global In/Out of the Money (indicator that calculates the average cost of a wallet holding the token and classifies them as In, Out, or At the money ) shows 59.83% of the total BTC holding addresses making profit despite the 44.8% downfall from the all-time high of $69,044.
Currently, the on-chain shows the price between the cluster of $37K to $39K, below which the short support range is between $35.5K to $37K. However, the resistance barrier between $39K and $44K is relatively more influential than the support zone. Therefore, a bearish continuation to $35K is possible if the price breaks below $37K.
In conclusion, the recent recovery from the $36.5K support zone helps the bulls gain momentum in the daily chart. However, the bullish rally may face rejection near the trendline. Therefore, investors expecting the BTC to hit the $60k mark will have to wait till the prices sustain above the $40K and, most importantly, the 50-day EMA.
