Short-term Bitcoin investors appear to be holding off on profit-taking, with fresh on-chain data indicating that the market may still have room for further gains before the next significant correction sets in.
According to analysis by Darkfost, the Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (STH MVRV) ratio, a key metric used to measure unrealized profits among recent buyers, remains well below the historical threshold that typically precedes profit-taking. In previous cycles, the STH MVRV ratio has peaked around 1.35, equivalent to 35% unrealized gains, often triggering a wave of short-term selling and market pullbacks.
STH MVRV Signals More Upside Ahead for BTC
“Every time the STH MVRV has reached around 1.35, it has triggered profit-taking behavior… There is still room for BTC to rise by approximately 20% to 25% before hitting that critical MVRV threshold again.” – By @Darkfost_Coc pic.twitter.com/HPNehg5EJ8
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) July 17, 2025
Currently, the ratio stands at just 1.15, implying that short-term holders are sitting on roughly 15% in unrealized profits. This gap suggests that Bitcoin could climb an additional 20%–25% before the market reaches the familiar inflection point where holders typically begin to offload.
This extended breakeven range is partly due to a major milestone reached earlier this month. On July 11, the realized price for short-term holders surpassed $100,000 for the first time in Bitcoin’s history. That figure has since risen to over $102,000, significantly increasing the psychological and financial threshold at which these investors might consider selling.
Meanwhile, activity in the derivatives market appears to be cooling. Data from Coinglass shows a 16.3% decline in trading volume and a slight drop in open interest, indicating that traders are adopting a more cautious stance despite positive on-chain signals. With short-term holders still far from peak profit levels and key technical signals flashing green, analysts suggest Bitcoin may have further room to run before the next round of profit-taking emerges.
Adding to the bullish momentum, Bitcoin has recently reclaimed its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), a key technical level that often marks the beginning of short-term price rallies. According to a June 25 analysis by CryptoQuant contributor İbrahim COŞAR, breaking above this indicator historically signals a trend reversal and renewed upward pressure.
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