Deutsche Bank has cut its gold price forecasts by up to 22%, as weaker investor demand and changing US interest rate expectations put pressure on the metal.
The bank now sees gold averaging around US$4,300 an ounce in the third quarter, down more than 20% from its earlier forecast. For the fourth quarter, it expects about US$4,800 an ounce, also lower than before, though still above current levels near US$4,140.
The revision follows a similar action by Goldman Sachs, which also reduced its gold target after changing its view on US Federal Reserve rate cuts. Gold has fallen more than 11% this quarter as markets adjust to the idea that interest rates may stay higher for longer. This has reduced demand for assets that do not offer yield, like gold.
🚨 NOW: Deutsche Bank slashes its gold price forecasts by up to 22%, now targeting $4,300/oz in Q3 and $4,800 by year-end. pic.twitter.com/kClU6J0FtQ
— amit malik (@amitmalikmalik) June 23, 2026
Higher rates and weaker fund flows reduce support for gold
Gold is under pressure mainly because US interest rates are expected to remain elevated for longer. When rates stay high, cash and bonds become more attractive compared to gold, which does not pay interest.
At the same time, gold-backed exchange-traded funds have seen continued outflows, reducing a major source of buying support. Demand from China has also weakened, with pricing gaps showing softer import interest.
Even though central banks are still buying gold, it has not been enough to balance out weaker investor demand.
Crypto recovers faster than gold as money moves
While gold has come under pressure, Bitcoin and parts of the crypto market have held firmer during recent volatility, supported by stronger trading activity and faster reactions to liquidity changes.
Bitcoin tends to respond more quickly when market conditions improve, especially when investors move back into higher-risk assets. This has helped it hold attention even as traditional safe-haven demand for gold weakens.
Gold is driven more by long-term storage demand, while Bitcoin moves more with short-term market flows. But in recent weeks, capital has shown a greater willingness to flow into crypto compared to gold during recovery phases, even as both remain sensitive to interest rate expectations.
In another development, the bank warned that the US dollar is losing its reputation as a reliable safe-haven asset, as extreme concentration in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector and rising market volatility trigger a decoupling between the greenback and global equities.
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