Goldman Sachs has lowered its gold price outlook, still expecting gains from current levels but a smaller upside than before, according to Bloomberg. The bank said the change shows a longer delay in expected US interest rate cuts and a stronger dollar environment.
Goldman now sees the Federal Reserve starting rate cuts in 2027, later than earlier forecasts that expected easing sooner. Analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven said the outlook remains
“structurally positive but short-term cautious,”
pointing to both near-term downside risk and longer-term upside potential.
Goldman Sachs cuts year-end gold target by $500 to $4,900/ounce, doubting rate cuts
“Our gold price views remain structurally constructive but tactically cautious, with near-term downside risk and medium-term upside risk.” pic.twitter.com/R9p8l20TUu
— Peter Spina ⚒ GoldSeek | SilverSeek (@goldseek) June 19, 2026
Higher rates and strong dollar weigh on gold
The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50%–3.75% in its June 17 meeting and said inflation is still above its 2% target. It also pointed to ongoing price pressure from energy costs.
Higher rates tend to pressure gold because it does not generate yield. When yields stay high, bonds and cash become more attractive. A stronger US dollar also makes gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
Reuters reported that gold is heading for a third weekly loss, with prices falling to their lowest level since June 11 as dollar strength and Fed signals continue to weigh on demand.
Is Bitcoin increasingly part of the same “safe-haven” trade?
In recent macro trading, gold is no longer the only asset reacting to inflation and rate expectations. Bitcoin is now often grouped into the same “store of value” basket by investors, especially in risk-on and risk-off shifts.
When interest rates stay high, both gold and crypto can face pressure as liquidity tightens and investors prefer yield-bearing assets. But Bitcoin sometimes reacts differently, especially when market uncertainty rises, and investors look for alternative hedges outside traditional finance. This creates a split in safe-haven behaviour, as gold remains tied to central bank policy. At the same time, Bitcoin moves between a risk asset and a macro hedge depending on liquidity conditions.
For now, the delay in rate cuts keeps pressure on both markets, but the way each responds highlights how digital assets are increasingly part of the same global macro conversation as gold.
Notably, Goldman Sachs disclosed a $2.36 billion portfolio of crypto assets, all acquired through spot crypto ETF holdings and direct token ownership. The firm’s holdings are broken down as: $1.1 billion in Bitcoin (BTC), $1.0 billion in Ethereum (ETH), $153 million in XRP, and $108 million in Solana (SOL), according to reports.
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