Bitcoin remained relatively resilient on Monday while gold fell, suggesting the market is currently pricing in a “deal probable” scenario for the Iran situation despite escalating rhetoric. According to Binance Research’s daily Geopolitical & Macro Pulse, Trump rejected Iran’s demand for a permanent ceasefire and insisted the Strait of Hormuz be reopened by 8 p.m. ET Tuesday or face strikes on power plants and bridges. Iran refused, demanding a guaranteed end to the war first, leaving both sides at a deadlock.
U.S. economic data added another layer of complexity. Nonfarm payrolls added 178K jobs in March, beating expectations, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%. However, ISM Services prices paid surged to 70.7, the highest in months
🧵 Binance Research: Geopolitical & Macro Pulse | April 7, 2026
Daily updates on geopolitical flashpoints and macroeconomic developments, with market implications for crypto investors.👇 pic.twitter.com/pHNyGDSNgq
— Binance Research (@BinanceResearch) April 7, 2026
Bitcoin is staying fairly stable around $67,000–$70,000, even with rising tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty around US–Iran relations. Despite short-term volatility, it has held key support levels. The stability is mainly driven by institutional demand (like Bitcoin ETFs), long-term holders buying, and a short squeeze in the market. Analysts say Bitcoin is currently in a consolidation phase, with possible upside if momentum continues.
Crypto positioning turns defensive
Hedge funds have reduced net exposure to the 31st percentile on a 3-year lookback, while retail investors have become even more cautious. March crypto purchases fell nearly 50% from January’s record, with money rotating into short-duration Treasuries, TIPS, and inverse ETFs.
Energy saw its largest retail outflow on record. Private credit stress is also escalating, with fund redemption requests spiking to 40%+ at major managers and CLO marks on private credit portfolios deteriorating.
Liquidity easing cycle pushed further out
The FOMC minutes and upcoming inflation data (CPI expected at 3.3% YoY on Friday) are keeping rate-cut expectations in check, with consensus now pointing to September at the earliest.
This effectively removes the liquidity easing cycle many had priced in for the first half of 2026. For Bitcoin, this means the environment remains challenging in the near term, though any positive catalyst on the geopolitical front could trigger sharp short-covering that often spills into crypto.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin entered April with mixed seasonal signals after posting five consecutive monthly declines, a historically rare streak that has often preceded counter-trend rallies.
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