Bitcoin ($BTC) surged to a one-month high on Wednesday, March 4, 2026, reaching the $71,000 mark as bulls prepare for a final push toward the psychological resistance of $72,000. The rally, which saw the premier digital asset climb 5.4% over the last seven days, is largely attributed to a massive wave of short-covering and sustained institutional demand through US spot ETFs.
Despite a backdrop of extreme market fear and escalating conflict in the Middle East, the cryptocurrency has demonstrated resilience, rebounding sharply from a February low of approximately $63,000.
Institutional demand stabilizes price action
The primary catalyst behind the current price expansion is the resurgence of capital inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. On Monday and Tuesday, these investment vehicles recorded a combined net inflow of over $683 million, effectively ending a five-week streak of redemptions that had drained nearly $4 billion from the market.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) was the primary driver of net gains on Tuesday, bringing in $322.4 million. This strong performance successfully compensated for slight net outflows experienced by competing funds, including Fidelity and Grayscale, according to data from Soso value.
Analysts at market maker Enflux suggest that the move is heavily driven by technical factors rather than a pure shift in macro sentiment. As the situation in the Middle East failed to escalate into an immediate regional war, traders who had positioned themselves bearishly were forced to cover their short positions. This “short squeeze” provided the necessary momentum to break through the $68,000 resistance level that had capped gains earlier in the week.
Shifting market structure and contextual outlook
Bitcoin’s recent break above a $68,000 descending trendline, with price holding, signals a potential bullish continuation in a volatile March 2026 market. Currently in a $60,000–$72,000 range, ETF inflows and macro forecasts aim for $100,000–$120,000 by month-end, though overleveraged longs pose a pullback risk. Social Media discussions show optimism but note $72,000 resistance and a possible $68,000 retest, matching observed patterns.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has unveiled his latest investment strategy, which involves a move toward hard assets and specific cryptocurrencies. This shift, he suggests, is a response to a predicted macro environment characterized by sustained inflation and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
Hayes specifically argues that escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran could ultimately compel the Federal Reserve to abandon its aggressive monetary policy. According to Hayes, such a pivot would serve as a major catalyst, driving crypto markets upward.
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