Quick Breakdown
- VanEck highlights fiscal policy clarity and Fed rate cut expectations as key drivers for risk assets in Q1 2026.
- Bitcoin and altcoins stand to benefit from improved monetary signals and institutional inflows.
- Trump’s reelection provides regulatory tailwinds, though ETF mechanics remain a wildcard.
VanEck predicts a surge in risk appetite for the first quarter of 2026. The firm points to sharper fiscal and monetary policy signals as primary catalysts. President Donald Trump’s reelection in November 2024 and inauguration in January 2025 set the stage for these developments. Investors now anticipate deficit spending paired with Federal Reserve rate cuts, creating fertile ground for equities and cryptocurrencies alike.
— VanEck (@vaneck_us) January 12, 2026
Fiscal clarity boosts crypto momentum
Trump’s administration promises tax cuts and deregulation, which VanEck analysts view as bullish for high-beta assets like Bitcoin. Fiscal visibility improved after Congress passed a 1.7 trillion-dollar spending bill in December 2025, averting shutdown risks. Monetary policy also aligns favorably, with markets pricing in two 25-basis-point Fed cuts by March 2026. Bitcoin ETFs saw 2.1 billion dollars in net inflows last week alone, reflecting renewed institutional demand. Ethereum spot ETFs followed suit, posting 412 million dollars in fresh capital despite broader market volatility. These flows underscore VanEck’s thesis that policy tailwinds will lift digital assets alongside stocks.
Bitcoin’s role in a risk-on environment
Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Fund and a crypto analyst, is highly confident that Bitcoin (BTC) will achieve a six-figure price before the end of January.
He points out that BTC’s sustained position above its 21-day moving average indicates a strong trend of “buyers stepping in to accumulate Bitcoin at these regions.” Van de Poppe sees the current prolonged trading range as highlighting the importance of key breakout levels. He forecasts that a decisive move past $92,000 would rapidly push the price to $100,000 within a maximum of ten days. This prediction follows BTC briefly hitting the $92,000 mark early Tuesday in Asia, after a Monday dip to the low $90,000 area.
As of January 13, 2026, Bitcoin remains above $95,000, supported by major corporate treasury adoptions from companies such as MicroStrategy and Metaplanet. The firm VanEck, while acknowledging these positive signals, maintains a cautious stance on Bitcoin’s exact placement amidst broader macroeconomic shifts. They note that spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) now dominate inflows. Furthermore, the SEC’s approval in July 2025 of in-kind redemptions for both Bitcoin and Ethereum products is seen as boosting liquidity, though it may also increase creation pressures during periods of high volatility.
Mirroring this uptrend, altcoins associated with Decentralized Finance (DeFi) and Real-World Assets (RWA), particularly those on the Solana network, are also rising. The volume of RWA tokenization has already reached $12 billion year-to-date.
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