Quick Breakdown
- Bitcoin drops below $100K but shows signs of mid-cycle consolidation rather than a sell-off.
- Ethereum-based stablecoins hit a record $2.82 trillion in monthly volume amid market rotation.
- Regulatory adoption accelerates with stablecoin pilots in Japan and updated frameworks in Australia.
Bitcoin experienced a sharp pullback last week, dropping as much as 21.46% from its October all-time high and briefly falling below the $100,000 mark to $99,045, according to the latest Bitfinex Alpha report. Analysts suggest the decline reflects market consolidation rather than a cascading sell-off, aligning with historical mid-cycle correction patterns.
Bitfinex noted that the short-term holders’ cost basis of $112,500 failed to hold, triggering a controlled decline back to deeper support levels. Around 72% of BTC supply remains in profit, positioning the market near the lower boundary of the 70–90% equilibrium band typical of mid-cycle slowdowns. The report identifies $88,500, the Active Investors’ realised price, as the next key downside reference. While temporary relief rallies toward the short-term holders’ cost basis are possible, a sustained recovery will depend on renewed demand from both institutional and retail participants.
🧵🇺🇸 A $2,000 payment for every American from @POTUS, funded through tariffs, would add serious spending power.
Even with hurdles in place, the signal is strong enough for traders to watch closely.
BTC volatility reflects that. pic.twitter.com/lT3RIOSN37
— Bitfinex (@bitfinex) November 10, 2025
Macro trends and crypto adoption driving market dynamics
The report highlighted mixed macroeconomic signals in the United States. Corporate borrowing has rebounded, but hiring data indicate weakness, with October’s ADP National Employment Report recording just 42,000 new jobs, primarily concentrated in large firms. Consumer confidence declined by 6% in November, reflecting concerns among households over slower hiring and policy uncertainty.
Meanwhile, the crypto industry continues its path toward mainstream adoption. Ethereum-based stablecoins reached a record $2.82 trillion in monthly volume in October, up 45% from September, as investors rotated into dollar-pegged tokens amid market pullbacks. Regulatory engagement is also intensifying: Japan’s Financial Services Agency approved a stablecoin pilot with major banks, and Australia’s ASIC announced a relaunch of its Innovation Hub with updated licensing for stablecoins and tokenized securities.
Structural strength and miner resilience
Bitfinex concluded that these trends reinforce Bitcoin’s role as a structural asset in a maturing digital finance ecosystem, with consolidation and regulated adoption likely shaping the next phase of market growth.
On-chain data indicates that Bitcoin miners have yet to show significant signs of capitulation, supporting a cautiously optimistic outlook for the market.
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