Last updated on January 3rd, 2026 at 11:51 am
Quick Breakdown
- Retail capitulation may be nearing its peak, according to Bitwise’s Matt Hougan.
- Arthur Hayes predicts quiet liquidity expansion (“stealth QE”) could boost Bitcoin.
- BTC has technically entered a bear market, but analysts say a rebound is still possible.
Bitcoin’s fall back under the $100,000 mark—the lowest level seen since June—has unsettled investors, yet two influential market voices say the downturn could be the setup for a bigger rally.
Retail exhaustion may signal a turning point
Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan believes the latest wave of selling shows retail traders are reaching peak capitulation rather than signaling a prolonged decline.
“Retail sentiment is the weakest I’ve ever encountered,”
Hougan said in a recent interview. He noted that crypto-native traders have faced severe leverage unwinds, heightening the pressure on prices. However, institutional players are reportedly still expressing long-term interest.
According to Hougan, once the retail sell-off stabilizes, institutional allocations could act as a major upward driver. He expects Bitcoin could return to new all-time highs by year-end, projecting a potential range between $125,000 and $130,000.
Hayes: U.S. debt could trigger “stealth QE”
Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes offered a macroeconomic angle. In his latest essay, Hayes argued that rising U.S. government debt issuance will push the Federal Reserve into expanding its balance sheet—what he calls “stealth quantitative easing.”
In this scenario, the Fed would support Treasury markets through its Standing Repo Facility, effectively injecting liquidity into the financial system without announcing a full QE program.
“If dollar liquidity increases, Bitcoin will eventually follow,”
Hayes wrote, suggesting this hidden easing could spark the next leg of the crypto bull market.
Market enters technical bear territory
The Kobeissi Letter, a macro trading commentary service, noted that Bitcoin has now fallen more than 20% from its record high set on October 6, marking a technical shift into bear market territory.
Some market watchers warn that further downside remains possible. Analyst Ted Pillows suggested a fall toward the $92,000 CME futures gap could occur if Bitcoin fails to reclaim support above $100,000.
Additionally, Blockchain author and Columbia Business School adjunct professor Omid Malekan, argues that conversations about Bitcoin’s recent price slump are overlooking a critical force behind the downturn. He also argues that crypto treasury companies have become a hidden driver pushing prices lower, not higher.
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