Quick Breakdown
- Bitcoin consolidates near $130K as short-term holders take profits, while exchange reserves drop to 2.49M BTC, signaling tightening supply.
- Spot outflows and accumulation trends support price recovery from $109K to $118K, though derivatives-driven momentum raises volatility risks.
- Sustainable upside depends on spot market participation, with on-chain data showing a growing divergence between Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Bitcoin is consolidating within the short-term holder MVRV pricing corridor, a range that tracks the profitability of recent buyers. The upper boundary of this band, near $130,000, has become a profit-taking zone for short-term holders. Despite volatility, Bitcoin has held above its realized price level throughout 2024, underscoring persistent bullish sentiment and structural market strength.
Bitcoin in Equilibrium With Growth Potential to $130K
“The upper boundary of this range (+1σ) currently runs around $130K and serves as a zone where short-term holders more actively lock in profits.” – By @AxelAdlerJr pic.twitter.com/m1oJh4tj7U
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) October 2, 2025
Spot reserves decline, supply tightens
On-chain data highlights a clear trend in September: steady exchange outflows. Spot reserves dropped from 2.61 million BTC to 2.49 million BTC during the month, a decline that coincided with Bitcoin’s price recovery from $109,000 to $118,000. The contraction in exchange balances signals fewer coins readily available for trading, historically aligning with accumulation phases and a healthier market structure.
The tightening of supply provides a constructive backdrop for price action. With fewer BTC on exchanges, immediate selling pressure is reduced, creating conditions that support further upside. Analysts note that if this trend continues alongside stable ETF inflows and resilient futures open interest, the case for a push toward $130,000 strengthens.
Derivatives lead, spot activity lags
While supply dynamics favour bulls, the rally has been primarily derivatives-led. Futures activity dominates trading volumes, leaving spot volumes relatively muted. This concentration in leveraged markets raises sensitivity to funding shifts, open interest imbalances, and liquidation cascades, which could inject sharp volatility into the market’s trajectory.
Market observers caution that while falling spot reserves point to accumulation, the reliance on derivatives for price momentum means short-term swings remain closely tied to leverage dynamics. A sustainable move higher will likely require greater participation from spot markets to balance speculative flows.
Meanwhile, on-chain data from CryptoQuant shows a growing divergence between Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH)—a development that may shape the next wave of capital rotation in digital assets. This time, reserves are flat, signaling that a significant portion of supply remains liquid and potentially available for selling.
If you want to read more market analyses like this one, visit DeFi Planet and follow us on Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram, and CoinMarketCap Community.
Take control of your crypto portfolio with MARKETS PRO, DeFi Planet’s suite of analytics tools.”
