Notcoin ($NOT) had an impressive start in July 2024, with its market value increasing by 87.81% from $0.00912 to $0.1699 in the first weekend (July 6-8). This rally was short lived by a 20% correction. Ironically, this growth is a recovery from a massive value drop in its first week of being publicly listed for trading.
In May 2024, Notcoin secured listings on major exchanges, including Binance and OKX, but the excitement was short-lived as barely days after listing, trading volume dropped from $1.24B to $120M (-85%), and market value decreased 68.16% from $0.01445 to $0.004686
This rapid and impressive recovery raises an important question: how and why this initial dip happened? Answering this question is quite for new investors or someone just getting to know the crypto market.
An Excellent Early Start
Notcoin gained attention due to a popular Telegram-based game where players could earn the token by tapping on their phone screens. At one point, over 35 million players were involved. The players were told they could use their tokens for various in-game activities, such as purchasing upgrades, participating in exclusive events, and even influencing the game’s development.
The project became very popular thanks to endorsements from high profile stakeholders like the Telegram founder Pavel Durov. Durov publicly praised Notcoin on his Telegram channel, emphasizing the project’s rapid growth and its transition from an in-game currency to real money for its users.
Also, in addition to its high-profile listing on major exchanges in May, nearly $1 billion worth of NOT was airdropped to game players and investors. The token hit an all-time high of $0.037 and, within 24 hours of its listing, became the eighth biggest cryptocurrency by trading volume globally… until seven days later.
The excitement quickly faded as the value of NOT plummeted. According to data from CoinMarketCap, the token’s trading volume dropped by more than 85% within a week, falling from $1.24 billion on its debut to $120 million on May 23, 2024, and then further to $88,522,856 in the next 24 hours.
On May 16, the token traded between $0.010775 and $0.01445. However, on May 23, its price dropped to $0.004686, representing a 68.16% decrease.
The Decline: What Really Happened
The significant drop in NOT’s value can be attributed to participants quickly selling off their airdropped tokens to secure profits instead of holding onto them for potential future gains. Many participants were young individuals with immediate financial needs, and selling their tokens helped them achieve their goals. This massive sell-off led to a significant oversupply in the market, driving the price down further.
The project also seems to have suffered from a trend it may have encouraged initially. At the start, the team introduced an NFT voucher program during the mining phase, allowing gamers who earned over 10 million Notcoins to convert them into NFT vouchers. These vouchers could be traded before the token launch and listing. At its peak, a voucher was exchanged for around $230. This speculation likely contributed to the initial hype and subsequent drop.
Notably, the Notcoin team implemented various initiatives to counter the token’s value decrease, including extending staking benefits and offering exclusive privileges to Gold and Premium users. They also launched a Telegram gaming accelerator in collaboration with Helika Gaming to expand the ecosystem, which now encompasses over 200 projects and has drawn more than 22.5 million users as of July 5.
Current Market Outlook and Future Price Predictions
As of July 24, 2024, NOT was trading at $0.01412, with a trading volume of $180,114,469 and a market capitalization of $1.4 billion.
Market predictions suggest that the token could reach $0.052105 by August 14, 2024, indicating a potential 235% increase. This further backed with the current market sentiment around the token being positive, it has a neutral Fear & Greed Index at 52.
Notcoin has experienced 13.77% price volatility over the past 30 days, with 40% of those days being green. These indicators suggest a vibrant and favorable market for Notcoin, with a combination of technical factors and ecosystem activities implying a strong rise in the coming months. Investors have been reportedly advised to monitor the lower support zones of $0.004800 and $0.005100, as well as the higher resistance level of $0.1, to determine their entry points.
Lessons Learned from Notcoin’s Dramatic Value Drop
The dramatic fall in Notcoin’s value offers several important lessons for investors. Here are key takeaways to help navigate the volatile world of cryptocurrencies:
Be Cautious with Overhyping New Tokens
Notcoin’s listing on major exchanges created a frenzy fueled by media and social media hype. This led to unrealistic expectations and a massive sell-off when investors sought quick profits. The key lesson here is to approach new tokens with caution.Conduct thorough research on the project’s fundamentals, team, and roadmap. Avoid getting caught up in the hype and consider a long-term perspective to make informed decisions and avoid speculative trading pitfalls.
Understand the Impact of Liquidity on Token Price
Liquidity plays a crucial role in maintaining a token’s price stability. The rapid selling of Notcoin resulted in an oversupply, driving prices down sharply. Understanding a token’s liquidity helps investors assess potential risks and price volatility. Tokens with higher liquidity tend to have more stable prices, so it’s important to be aware of how large-scale sales can impact the market.
Diversification is Key
Notcoin’s dramatic drop highlights the importance of diversification. Investors who put all their funds in Notcoin faced heavy losses. Spreading investments across various tokens and asset classes can mitigate risks and protect against significant losses from any single investment. Diversification is crucial for managing risk in the volatile cryptocurrency market and enhances the chances of benefiting from the growth of multiple assets.
Disclaimer: This article is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be considered trading or investment advice. Nothing herein should be construed as financial, legal, or tax advice. Trading or investing in cryptocurrencies carries a considerable risk of financial loss. Always conduct due diligence.
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