Last updated on March 25th, 2026 at 07:24 pm
Veteran attorney Bill Morgan has predicted that the United States Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) has a slim chance of winning an appeal against Ripple in the ongoing XRP lawsuit. He concluded that the SEC’s odds are a mere 3%.
Morgan expressed this view in a tweet on October 22, 2023. He noted that, aside from some potential concerns regarding certain ODL sales, there appears to be no readily apparent error in the trial judge’s rulings to serve as a basis for an appeal.
Morgan made post in response to another tweet pointing out that the SEC has historically had a meager 14.2% success rate in appealing cases to higher courts to support his perspective. He added that their chances in this instance seem even slimmer.
I don’t see any obvious appellable error other than in Ripple’s favor in respect of ODL sales which don’t meet at least two prongs of the Howey test. The SEC’s prospects of success on appeal are very slim and I feel generous today so I am giving it 3% chance of success on appeal https://t.co/FRIFbqzmVA
— bill morgan (@Belisarius2020) October 22, 2023
This legal battle between SEC and Ripple began in 2020 when the regulator sued the company over allegations of sales of unregistered security with its XRP token. However, in a significant victory for Ripple, the judge’s ruling in July 2023 established that specific XRP transactions on cryptocurrency exchanges do not violate securities laws.
On October 4, the court denied the SEC’s motion to appeal that ruling, further contributing to the regulator’s legal setbacks.
Notably, on October 19, the SEC took a surprising step by moving to dismiss all charges against Ripple executives Brad Garlinghouse and Chris Larsen.
This development was met with skepticism from many in the cryptocurrency community, who viewed it as a sign of the SEC’s growing desperation as the case against Ripple appeared to be unraveling. Ripple chief legal officer Stuart Alderoty called the SEC’s move ‘a surrender.’
Morgan also predicted that the trial scheduled for next year is unlikely to proceed since the charges against executives were dropped. Instead, he envisions a final judgment emerging in 2023, marking the conclusion of the three-year legal battle between Ripple and the SEC.
Meanwhile, LBRY, a company entangled in a similar legal dispute with the SEC, announced its decision to wind down its operations following a failed appeal against a judgment favoring the regulator. The company now faces debts in the millions owed to the commission for charges related to unregistered securities sales.
LBRY announced this development the same day SEC dismissed claims against Ripple executives. However, some of the crypto community expressed concerns over the action because they think it casts a shadow over Ripple’s victory.
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