Cryptocurrency users are flocking to prediction markets following a major breakthrough in U.S. stablecoin regulation, as momentum builds behind a new legislative push and vocal support from President Donald Trump.
On June 19, the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket reflected soaring optimism for the passage of the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act, or GENIUS Act, with odds of it becoming law reaching 89%. The uptick in betting activity came after the Senate voted 68-30 in favour of the bill on June 17, sending it to the House of Representatives for further consideration.
Trump added fuel to the legislative push by calling for the bill to be sent “to [his] desk” and pledged to sign it without amendments if it reaches him swiftly. While his comments energized Republican lawmakers, uncertainty remains over whether the House—where the GOP holds a slim majority—will pass the legislation in its current form or introduce changes to address concerns over the former president’s crypto ties.
One such concern involves USD1, a stablecoin issued by World Liberty Financial, a company linked to Trump-aligned figures. Although Senate lawmakers rejected a last-minute amendment related to the token, its connection to the bill remains a flashpoint as the legislation moves through the lower chamber.
If passed, the GENIUS Act could unlock a new era of digital payments in the U.S., enabling domestic companies to launch their stablecoins for transactions. Reports suggest tech heavyweights such as Apple, Google, and Meta may be exploring such opportunities, with some senators already questioning Meta’s plans in anticipation of the bill’s passage.
Meanwhile, the House is also preparing to vote on the CLARITY Act, a separate proposal that would establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for the broader crypto market. The bill recently cleared a key committee stage and may soon advance to the House floor.
While prediction markets like Polymarket reflect high expectations, they serve more as a temperature check of sentiment among crypto users rather than a reliable indicator of legislative outcomes.
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