Veteran trader Peter Brandt has pushed back on bold projections that Bitcoin could surge to $250,000 by 2026, warning that current price action does not yet support such an aggressive outlook. His latest chart analysis suggests the market is still in a controlled phase rather than on the verge of a major breakout.
Brandt pointed to Bitcoin’s recent formation of an ascending parallel channel, a structure that can allow gradual upside but lacks the characteristics of a definitive bottom. According to him, traders should be cautious about interpreting the recent recovery as the start of a sustained bull run.
“This is called a channel,”
Brandt noted, emphasizing that while the pattern does not rule out further gains, it does not confirm a bullish reversal either.
Bitcoiners
Those of you predicting $250,000 in 2026 need to stop with the mushrooms
This is called a channel $BTC
While it does not preclude further price gains, it is NOT a bullish bottoming pattern
The Factor Report reports on classical chart analysis https://t.co/6nRit1xsVp pic.twitter.com/ApMM46KFla— The Factor Report (@PeterLBrandt) April 27, 2026
Bitcoin trades within a controlled upward channel
Bitcoin is currently hovering between $76,000 and $78,000 after rebounding from a steep drop earlier this year. The asset had previously fallen close to the $60,000 support level in February before beginning a slow and steady recovery.
Brandt’s analysis shows that BTC is climbing within a structured channel, which typically reflects measured buying rather than explosive demand. While this can signal short-term stability, it may also cap momentum if buyers fail to break above resistance levels.
For a stronger bullish confirmation, Bitcoin would need to push decisively above the channel, ideally supported by rising trading volume. Until then, the market may remain range-bound, with traders watching closely for a clear directional signal.
On-chain data highlights weak participation
Additional insights from on-chain analyst Ali Martinez reinforce the cautious outlook. Martinez noted that less than 7% of the Bitcoin supply is currently held by recent buyers, indicating subdued retail participation.
Historically, such low activity levels have appeared near points where selling pressure begins to ease, but they do not immediately translate into strong upward momentum. Martinez also highlighted that roughly $3 billion has flowed into the crypto market over the past month, the first notable net inflow since December.
While this suggests improving liquidity, the market still lacks the robust demand needed to fuel a major rally.
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