Global brokerage firm FBS has released its mid-year analysis of the cryptocurrency market, spotlighting Bitcoin’s continued dominance throughout the first half of 2025.
The report also outlines the macroeconomic trends likely to shape crypto performance in the months ahead.
According to FBS, Bitcoin (BTC) demonstrated exceptional resilience in H1, briefly falling to $76,300 before rebounding to a new all-time high. This recovery, the firm notes, was underpinned by a more favourable macroeconomic environment marked by stabilizing inflation, a pause in U.S. interest rate hikes, and a weakening dollar. Together, these factors helped solidify Bitcoin’s position as the leading digital asset, particularly among institutional investors.
FBS Analyzes Cryptocurrency Market Trends in H1 2025 and Outlines Key Drivers for H2https://t.co/MJql9eHMU7
— ForexLive (@ForexLive) July 16, 2025
“Bitcoin has once again proven to be the core asset in the crypto market,”
analysts at FBS stated, while also raising the critical question of whether the current bull run is approaching its final phase.
In contrast, the altcoin sector has lagged. Major tokens, including Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and XRP, struggled to regain momentum amid weak fundamentals and subdued speculative demand. Although some assets like XRP maintained relative stability thanks to strong community backing and partnerships, overall altcoin performance fell short of expectations.
As the market turns toward the second half of the year, FBS identifies three macroeconomic variables that could dictate crypto’s next moves: future interest rate decisions by the U.S. Federal Reserve, shifts in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), and the ongoing correlation between crypto and equity markets, especially tech stocks.
Building on historical patterns, the firm also points to Bitcoin’s halving cycle as a critical timing signal. With the last halving occurring in April 2024, FBS estimates a potential market top between Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, 200 to 500 days after the halving, consistent with previous cycles.
Adding to the market outlook, Bybit and Block Scholes released a new crypto derivatives report noting a six-day streak of gains in risk-on assets, driven by optimism around potential U.S. trade agreements. However, the report warns that traders remain cautious amid continued volatility, reflecting a market still on edge.
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