Citigroup has lowered its 12-month price forecasts for Bitcoin and Ether, citing weaker investor demand, slowing exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows, and delays in U.S. crypto legislation.
The bank cut its Bitcoin target to $82,000 from $112,000 and reduced its Ether forecast to $2,240 from $3,175 as of July 1st 2026.
The revisions come as both assets have struggled. Bitcoin recently traded near $58,900, its lowest level since September 2024, while Ether fell to about $1,586, a level last seen in April 2025. Both cryptocurrencies also moved below their long-term moving averages, reflecting continued selling pressure.
ETF outflows change Citi’s market outlook
One of the main factors behind Citi’s revision is its change in expectations for Bitcoin ETF demand. The bank reduced its 12-month forecast for net Bitcoin ETF inflows from $10 billion to zero.
According to Citi, Bitcoin ETFs have recorded approximately $3.3 billion in net outflows so far this year. This reverses part of the demand pattern that helped support Bitcoin during its previous rally.
Citi also pointed to slower progress on U.S. crypto legislation and concerns that some corporate Bitcoin holders could sell portions of their holdings. Together, these factors have reduced the amount of institutional and corporate buying that analysts previously expected to support prices.
Bitcoin ETFs have become an important channel for traditional investors to gain exposure to the asset. Changes in ETF flows therefore provide one measure of how institutional demand is developing.
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Citi’s downside scenario points to deeper losses
Citi’s base targets are not the same as its most negative scenario. Under conditions involving weaker economic activity and continued ETF outflows, the bank said Bitcoin could fall to $53,000 over the next year, while Ether could decline to $1,094.
The scenario illustrates how sensitive institutional forecasts can be to changes in market liquidity and investor demand. ETF flows are not the only factor affecting prices, but sustained outflows can remove a source of buying pressure at a time when market participants are already reducing risk.
The forecasts also show why crypto price targets can change quickly. A target published during a period of strong inflows can become outdated if capital flows reverse or regulatory expectations deteriorate.
Institutional demand remains the central question
Large banks typically consider more than technical price patterns when developing crypto forecasts. Capital flows, regulation, corporate activity, and macroeconomic conditions can all affect their assumptions about future demand.
That makes Citi’s latest revision less about a precise price prediction and more about its assessment of the market’s current demand environment. The change in ETF expectations is particularly relevant because institutional products have become a major part of the Bitcoin market.
Related: Spot Bitcoin ETFs Bleed $4.4 Billion Over Thirteen Days in Longest Outflow Run on Record
Bitcoin was recently trading near the lower end of its recent range, while market participants adjusted positions amid weaker momentum and uncertainty.
For investors, Citi’s revised targets provide another indication of how institutional expectations have changed as ETF flows weaken and U.S. crypto legislation takes longer to advance.
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