21Shares has maintained its year-end Bitcoin price target of $100,000, arguing that the current market correction remains consistent with previous post-halving cycles despite a sharp decline from last year’s record highs.
In its mid-year crypto market report published Wednesday, the firm said Bitcoin continues to show signs of resilience even after falling roughly 50% from its all-time high of nearly $126,000 reached in October 2025.
Bitcoin was trading around $62,300 at the time of the report. According to 21Shares, the asset has remained above its aggregate investor cost basis of approximately $54,000, avoiding the deep capitulation phases that characterized previous bear markets.
The firm said the market’s behaviour suggests a more mature environment supported by stronger and more stable capital flows.
Bitcoin correction or sign of strength?
While Bitcoin remains well below its peak, 21Shares noted that the current drawdown is significantly less severe than the declines seen in earlier market cycles, which often exceeded 80%. The report highlighted that Bitcoin has not fallen below the average purchase price of holders, a level often viewed as an important indicator of market health.
According to the asset manager, the ability to hold above this threshold suggests investors are showing greater conviction compared to previous downturns, reducing the likelihood of panic-driven selling.
ETF demand remains an important market push
Global crypto exchange-traded product (ETP) assets under management stood at roughly $140 billion as of May, down about 15% since the start of the year. However, 21Shares attributed most of the decline to lower asset prices rather than widespread investor withdrawals.
The report noted that total Bitcoin holdings across crypto ETPs remained close to record levels at 1.25 million BTC despite approximately $3 billion in net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.
The firm also pointed to expanding investor interest beyond Bitcoin, highlighting new crypto investment products, including Hyperliquid-linked ETFs that attracted around $150 million within their first month of trading. Additionally, 21Shares introduced SUI2, the inaugural leveraged exchange-traded fund (ETF) tied to the SUI token, directly on the Nasdaq exchange.
Can tokenization and prediction markets drive the next growth phase?
Beyond Bitcoin, 21Shares identified tokenization and prediction markets as two of the fastest-growing areas in the digital asset sector.
Prediction markets generated $57.5 billion in trading volume through May, already surpassing half of the firm’s full-year estimate. Annual volume is projected to exceed $100 billion and could approach $200 billion depending on activity surrounding the FIFA World Cup and U.S. midterm elections later this year.
Meanwhile, tokenized assets on public blockchains reached approximately $31 billion, including $15 billion in tokenized U.S. Treasurys. Assets represented on institutional permissioned networks, such as Canton, were estimated at around $350 billion.
In decentralized finance, total value locked remained near $140 billion, with security concerns continuing to limit growth. Ethereum’s Layer 2 ecosystem also showed increasing concentration, with Base, Arbitrum and Optimism accounting for roughly 83% of total Layer 2 DeFi liquidity.
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