Quick BreakDown
- XRP dropped 13% from its $2.41 peak, mainly due to $40.8 million in ETF outflows and a 99% plunge in weekend payments volume on the XRPL.
- Even with the drop, the Stochastic RSI falling below 25 shows XRP is oversold, a level that has often come before big price rallies in the past.
- The upcoming tokenized gold upgrade on the XRPL is designed to expand real-world asset use cases and could help boost trading volume and adoption.
XRP has pulled back sharply, dropping 13% from its January 6 high of $2.4 to around $2.03 as of January 12, 2026.
This pullback comes after a strong rally driven by ETF inflows, but recent outflows and a big drop in XRP Ledger activity have worried traders. Technical indicators suggest a possible rebound, and upgrades like tokenized gold offer long-term potential. This analysis looks at the data, expert opinions, and what it means for investors during this volatile period.
How XRP’s Recent Price Swing Unfolded
XRP started 2026 strong, jumping 31% from $1.89 in late December to $2.41 in early January. This breakout cleared the $2 daily moving average that had capped prices since October 2025, driven by $1.3 billion in U.S. spot XRP ETF inflows over the prior 50 days and shrinking exchange balances signalling strong accumulation. Ripple’s futures product launches further boosted sentiment. The tide turned quickly.
Between January 7 and 11, XRP posted daily declines: $2.31 on the 7th, $2.17 on the 8th, and settled near $2.09 by the 9th and 10th. On the 12th, it hit an intraday low of $2.06 during a 1.39% daily drop. Trading volume dropped by half to $1.62 billion, showing profit-taking as the wider crypto market, including Bitcoin, also slowed down.
Adding to the price drop, XRP Ledger saw payments volume plummet 99% over the January 10-11 weekend, returning to low liquidity after higher weekday activity. Daily active addresses and fees are also down compared to last year, showing weaker network use, even though capital inflows continue.
Given these trends, January forecasts suggest a minimum price of $2.03, an average of $2.19, and a maximum of $2.35, with important support at the $2 moving average.
Analyst Says ‘Oversold’ Condition Could Point to a Rebound
Crypto analyst @Steph_iscrypto judged XRP as “oversold” on the three-week XRP/USDT chart, where the stochastic RSI has fallen below 25, a level below 30 that historically signals buying opportunities. Similar dips in 2023 and 2024 came before big rallies of 256% and 857%, leading him to forecast “$5 before you know it.” The weekly RSI crossing above its moving average adds bullish confirmation, a pattern that has driven strong gains since 2024.
🚨 $XRP IS OVERSOLD!!! pic.twitter.com/x2BxHmS9tC
— STEPH IS CRYPTO (@Steph_iscrypto) January 10, 2026
That said, XRP is lingering below key exponential moving averages, and thin weekend volumes introduce noise like potential fakeouts. Holding above short-term supports keeps rebound hopes alive, especially if broader market flows return.
Is the Network Slump Just ‘Weekend Effect’ or a Warning Sign?
The 99% drop in XRP Ledger activity over 48 hours raised eyebrows, but experts are framing it as a normal weekend pattern. Market-making bots, cross-border payment tests, and institutional activity typically quiet down, dropping volumes from elevated weekday highs. A persistent mid-week decline could mean deeper issues, but history shows quick recoveries as Monday liquidity kicks in.
Price action reflects this pattern: attempts to recover from lows have stalled near moving averages during unstable, low-volume trading. Traders should monitor payment volume for early signs of a rebound, as upticks could confirm stabilization.
Could Tokenized Gold Upgrade Spark Utility?
Web3 founder Phil Kwok says “tokenized gold is coming to the XRPL,” with support from validators like Vet who see technical alignment.
absolutely.
tokenised gold is coming to the xrp ledger.
and it’s going to be epic. https://t.co/wSPobxHD2W
— Phil Kwok | EasyA (@kwok_phil) January 9, 2026
This builds on Meld Gold’s 2024 Ripple partnership for gram-backed gold and silver tokens, and could expand real-world asset use cases on the ledger. The benefits include more trading and settlement volume, as well as DeFi applications, but success will depend on strong custody, audits, regulatory approval, and user incentives.
Evernorth’s work with Doppler Finance is also looking at liquidity and treasury solutions, aiming to meet institutional demand as XRP’s payment network grows. These projects could help offset recent drops in usage by expanding beyond just remittances.
What the Numbers are Really Showing: Breaking Down the Data and Trends
This pullback reflects classic profit-taking after a 31% pump, further pronounced by $40.8 million in U.S. spot XRP ETF outflows that ended a 55-day inflow streak. A wider crypto market slowdown, linked to Bitcoin’s dip, has also hurt other crypto assets.
Key metrics tell the story:
On-chain data shows more detail: active addresses and fees are down from last year, but low reserves mean holders are keeping their coins instead of selling. Technically, holding the $2 MA50 is key, and analysts say breaking above $2.56 could lead to $3. Compared to others, XRP is down 13% this week, while Bitcoin is down 5% and Ethereum 8%, but being oversold could help XRP catch up.
The move toward tokenized gold could give XRP more utility, potentially reigniting volumes if adoption follows. Risks include extended network weakness or hawkish Fed signals. If the RSI bounces and inflows return, XRP could reach $2.35 by month-end. Bears eye a $1.77 retest if volumes stay low.
Overall stance: dips above $2 warrant buys for $2.50+ targets, provided network metrics recover, though analyst optimism sometimes overlooks liquidity traps.
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