Last updated on December 31st, 2025 at 11:42 am
Quick Breakdown
- Gemini obtains key US regulatory approval to offer prediction markets, marking a milestone for crypto platforms entering event-contract trading.
- GEM token surges 14% following the license announcement, reflecting investor confidence in expanded US operations.
- The move positions Gemini as a leader in compliant prediction markets, tapping into demand for betting on elections, sports, and economic events.
Gemini breaks into prediction markets after US approval
Gemini has received a US license that allows it to launch prediction markets, a platform where users bet on real-world event outcomes using crypto. The exchange, founded by the Winklevoss twins, announced the development on December 10, 2025, positioning itself to compete in a sector gaining traction after the 2024 US elections. This approval comes amid a friendlier regulatory environment under President Donald Trump, who took office in January 2025 after his reelection.
BREAKING pic.twitter.com/s4q7QJFu5v
— Gemini (@Gemini) December 10, 2025
Trading will cover topics such as politics, weather, and economics, with settlements determined by trusted oracles. Gemini emphasized compliance with US securities laws, distinguishing its offering from offshore or decentralized alternatives. The GEM token jumped 14% to around $0.045, driven by news of the license from a central state regulator, likely tied to its New York BitLicense expansion.
Regulatory shift favours crypto innovation
This license arrives as US regulators ease restrictions on crypto firms. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency relaxed bank crypto rules earlier in 2025, paving the way for players like SoFi to offer trading. Gemini’s move aligns with broader trends, including Grayscale’s planned spot Chainlink ETF and Kraken’s EU expansions under MiCA.
Prediction markets face scrutiny over insider trading risks, but Gemini plans robust KYC and monitoring. CEO Cameron Winklevoss stated the platform will “democratize information markets” while meeting federal standards. Analysts see this boosting Gemini’s US market share, which currently stands at $4.2 billion in assets.
Notably, Gemini has completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO), raising approximately $425 million. The shares were priced at $28 and began trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker “GEMI.” This major financial milestone, supported by key institutions such as Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, signifies a profound moment for the digital asset sector.
It represents a “deeper push into crypto markets” by Wall Street, legitimizing digital asset firms. With this new capital and visibility, Gemini plans to accelerate its global expansion, scaling its institutional-grade services and robust regulatory compliance across the more than 60 countries where it operates. Ultimately, the IPO is central to the company’s strategy to expand its global services amid the quickening pace of mainstream crypto adoption.
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