Circle shares have pulled back sharply by 28% from recent highs, bringing valuation back into focus after a strong short-covering rally. The stock surged from $63 in late February to $125 within weeks, but has since given up much of those gains, trading closer to the sub-$80 range.
Markus Thielen’s latest chart shows Circle’s price (left axis) against its relative performance to Bitcoin (right axis). After the explosive rebound, the stock is now consolidating near its 30-day and 7-day moving averages, with relative strength also moderating.
Circle’s share price is falling mainly due to investor concerns about proposed U.S. regulations, including the Clarity Act, which could restrict exchanges from offering rewards on stablecoin holdings like USDC. Analyst sentiment is also mixed, with forecasts showing a wide range of price targets and weaker growth expectations. Overall, concerns about regulation and slowing momentum are weighing on investor confidence in the stock.
Source: BITofficial_EN
Rally gets largely priced in
The rapid 88% gain in February and early March appeared largely priced in by mid-March. Thielen had highlighted the potential for a sharp rebound when shares traded at $63, and the stock delivered. However, with the move now largely complete, attention is shifting toward valuation and the lack of immediate catalysts.
CLARITY Act and stablecoin outlook weigh
Developments around the CLARITY Act include draft language that could restrict stablecoin issuers from offering yield on idle holdings. For Circle, this may limit certain interest-bearing product initiatives, although it could ultimately support a clearer regulatory framework for USDC. Stablecoin growth has slowed, activity remains subdued, and no strong near-term catalyst has emerged.
As Circle moves closer to the sub-$80 zone, Thielen notes that valuation metrics become more relevant. Without renewed growth drivers or a fresh DeFi cycle, the stock may face continued pressure in the near term. Meanwhile, Circle closed out 2025 with a powerful fourth quarter, underscoring accelerating global demand for its stablecoin infrastructure and digital asset products.
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